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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 47.77%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 30.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.87%) and 1-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
47.77% ( -0.27) | 21.67% ( -0.04) | 30.56% ( 0.31) |
Both teams to score 68.07% ( 0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.66% ( 0.39) | 31.34% ( -0.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.21% ( 0.46) | 52.79% ( -0.46) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.23% ( 0.06) | 13.77% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.92% ( 0.11) | 41.08% ( -0.11) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.94% ( 0.37) | 21.06% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.14% ( 0.57) | 53.86% ( -0.57) |
Score Analysis |
Notts County | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 4.57% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.02) 4-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.87% Total : 47.77% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.52% Total : 21.67% | 1-2 @ 6.98% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.77% Total : 30.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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