Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 74.47%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Braga had a probability of 10.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.66%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
74.47% ( -0.25) | 14.93% ( 0.19) | 10.61% ( 0.06) |
Both teams to score 56.92% ( -0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.47% ( -0.82) | 29.53% ( 0.82) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.38% ( -1) | 50.62% ( 1) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.28% ( -0.23) | 6.72% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.14% ( -0.62) | 24.86% ( 0.63) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.02% ( -0.49) | 38.99% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.29% ( -0.47) | 75.71% ( 0.47) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.08) 6-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.06) 6-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.29% Total : 74.47% | 1-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 14.93% | 1-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.53% Total : 10.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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