The two highest-scoring teams in the NFL this season will duke it out on Sunday at Highmark Stadium as the Buffalo Bills go toe-to-toe with the Miami Dolphins.
Both sides are coming off convincing victories last weekend, with the Bills taking care of the Washington Commanders 37-3, while Miami destroyed the Denver Broncos 70-20 in a record-setting day which capitulated them to the top of the AFC East with a 3-0 mark, a game above the Bills.
Match preview
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An offensive unit that struggled in their opener against the New York Jets in week one, tossing three interceptions and only converting five of 13 third downs, have picked up the slack since then, scoring nearly 40 points on consecutive occasions in a pair of comfortable victories over the Las Vegas Raiders (38-10) and Commanders.
Buffalo will head into this contest having suffered just one defeat in their last 12 regular season home games, while they have won seven successive encounters at Highmark Stadium versus the Phins in the regular season and playoffs.
The offence have got the bulk of the attention so far this season, but the defence are coming off a sparkling performance across the board, picking off Washington QB Sam Howell four times and registering nine sacks on him, while only allowing one third down conversion, and Sean McDermott will need that kind of performance from this group on Sunday as they face the most potent offensive unit in the NFL.
So far in 2023 the Bills have given up the lowest passer rating in the league (54.0) and have allowed the second-fewest yards per game (253.0), while they rank third regarding turnover differential (+4), so as much as people talk about the Bills offensive studs, this team would not be where they are without their defence.
Given the explosiveness of their opponents this weekend, we would not be surprised to see the Bills' game plan be to hand the ball off early and often in an effort to limit the number of Miami possessions, and Buffalo have run the ball well over the past two weeks, accumulating 183 yards on the ground versus Vegas and 168 in the US capital.
If that is part of the game plan, then the Bills offensive line will need to be at their best, and since allowing five sacks to the Jets in their opener, Buffalo have been much sharper in the blocking department, giving up just two sacks versus the Raiders and none against the Commanders, while the offence have only turned the ball over once in their last two games.
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In what can only be described as a comprehensive beatdown, Miami made a statement in their home opener last Sunday, putting up an incredible 726 total yards on a day filled with highlights for the club from South Beach.
They set a new franchise record for the most points in a single game and also scored the most points in an NFL contest since Washington had 72 versus the New York Giants in 1966, while the Dolphins became the first team in the league to record five touchdowns through the air and on the ground in a single encounter, while also becoming the first to score 70 points and have at least 700 yards offensively.
Last Sunday, the Dolphins racked up nearly as many rushing yards (350) as they did passing (376), with the offence averaging 10.2 yards per play against a helpless Broncos defence, as Mike McDaniel has seen his group score a league-high 130 points so far, second only to the 1968 Dallas Cowboys (132) for the most after three weeks of an NFL regular season.
Having a quarterback who has a history of concussion issues, there will be a lot of pressure on the Miami offensive line to be stellar when it comes to pass protection, and they have done the job so far, allowing just one sack through three weeks, none versus Denver, while the Broncos only registered one QB hit.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Dolphins will need to do a better job at getting to the quarterback this weekend, as they only sacked Broncos pivot Russell Wilson once, though they did manage to hit him 12 times.
The Dolphins pass defence has been adequate, conceding an 88.6 average rating this season, including 6.8 yards per attempt with a respectable turnover differential of +2.
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Team News
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Jordan Poyer did not practice in midweek for the Bills due to a sore knee but is still probable for Sunday, as are Leonard Floyd and Ryan Bates, who each have ankle sprains, while Taron Johnson saw limited practice time this week but should be available despite a hip injury.
Josh Allen had a 79.9 passer rating in Washington, throwing for 218 yards with a touchdown through the air and on the ground, plus an interception, Stefon Diggs has racked up over 100 yards receiving on two occasions, including eight grabs for 111 yards in their previous encounter, Gabe Davis had their only receiving score versus the Commanders and James Cook accumulated 98 rushing yards on 15 carries after putting up 123 against Las Vegas.
The four Bills interceptions versus the Commanders came from AJ Epenesa, Micah Hyde, Tre'Davious White and Terrel Bernard, with the latter also registering two sacks, Taron Johnson is likely to face the Dolphins' top receiving threat, and the Buffalo corner has only given up 38 yards when the ball is thrown his way, Leonard Floyd is tied for sixth in the NFL with 3.5 sacks, while Matt Milano is tied for third in interceptions with two.
Miami put up their mind-blowing offensive numbers last Sunday without their number two receiver from a season ago, Jaylen Waddle, who was forced out due to concussion protocol, Terron Armstead is expected to play on Sunday despite a sore back, Raekwon Davis is probable even though he has a problem in his wrist, while Elijah Campbell should be good to go following a knee injury.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa put up a 155.8 passer rating in the blowout victory over Denver, with 309 yards through the air and four touchdown passes, two of which went to De'Von Achane, who ran for a pair of scores as well, rushing for 203 yards on 18 carries, Tyreek Hill had another monster showing with nine grabs for 157 yards and a score, while Raheem Mostert racked up a combined 142 yards on the ground and through the air with three rushing TDs and one receiving.
Expect to see Xavien Howard on Diggs throughout this contest, and the 30-year-old corner has a 79.2 rating against him so far this season, Emmanuel Ogbah had their only sack and pick versus Denver, while Jevon Holland led the team with seven tackles.
Head To Head
Miami lead the overall series between these two division rivals by a count of 62-56-1, though Buffalo have captured nine of the last 10 meetings, including a narrow 34-31 win in the Wild Card Round last season when Davis, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox each caught a TD pass from Allen, with Cook running for a score, while Tyler Bass made his two field goals.
The previous victory for the Dolphins versus the Bills occurred in September 2022 when Chase Edmunds ran for a pair of TDs, and Tua found River Cracraft for an 11-yard score, helping them to a narrow 21-19 triumph.
During the 1972 campaign, Buffalo came close to ruining history for Miami as the Bills' John Leypoldt booted three field goals, Jim Braxton caught a fourth quarter touchdown and Ken Lee had a pick-six, though the Dolphins countered with a pair of rushing scores from Mercury Morris and one from Larry Csonka, while Garo Yepremian kicked a 54-yard field goal as the Phins prevailed 24-23 and went on to become the first and only NFL team to finish a season unbeaten and capture the Super Bowl.
In a matchup of two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the 1990 AFC Divisional Round, the Bills' Jim Kelly outduelled Dan Marino, tossing a pair of TDs to future Hall of Fame receiver Andre Reed, while Thurman Thomas ran for two scores in a 44-34 triumph, with Kelly doing it again in the 1993 AFC Championship Game on a day where Steve Christie connected on five goals to help Buffalo beat Miami 29-10 and advance to a third successive Super Bowl.
The last time the Dolphins won a game at Orchard Park was on Christmas Eve 2016, 34-31, when Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake each ran for a TD, while Matt Moore found DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills for scores.
We say: Buffalo Bills 29-30 Miami Dolphins
Fortunately for the Dolphins, this matchup takes place in late September, when the snow and bone-chilling temperatures at Orchard Park have yet to arrive, and that should enable the offence to find their groove.
This could be a back-and-forth contest with two high-flying offences full of confidence, but we believe the Phins might have a few more big plays at their disposal.
Joel Lefevre
