A first-round bye is within reach for the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday when they head to AT&T Stadium for a date with the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite dropping a 40-34 decision in overtime to the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend, Dallas still clinched a postseason berth, while Philly have won five in a row, edging the Chicago Bears in their previous encounter 25-20.
Match preview
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A game that Dallas looked to have well in hand got away from them last weekend as they blew a 21-7 half-time lead, ending their four-game winning streak in the process.
The Cowboys allowed over 500 yards to the Jaguars a week ago, the most they had given up in any game this season, conceding fewer than 400 yards in all but one of their 2022 outings before that contest.
That was their first loss to an AFC South opponent since 2018, and they go into this encounter unbeaten at home versus their division in over two years.
Their pass rush, ranked second in the NFL regarding sacks this year (49), has regressed in recent outings, with Dallas only managing one in their last two games.
They tend to suffer when they cannot get to opposing quarterbacks before the ball is thrown, allowing a 96.3 rating to wide receivers in 2022.
Over the past two campaigns, this month has been very good to Mike McCarthy and his team, who before their defeat to the Jags had only lost one of their previous 10 games played in December.
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Since the start of the regular season, Nick Sirianni's group have been the team to beat, and with three weeks left before the playoffs, that is still the case.
However, the talk around the Eagles this week is not about them being the best team in the league but rather the concern surrounding the health of Jalen Hurts.
Their star QB and one of the leading candidates for NFL MVP will be a question mark after sustaining a shoulder injury in their victory against Chicago.
Even if he is unavailable, there are still plenty of reasons for Eagles fans to be optimistic about their team, not to mention the fact that a victory on Saturday could put them into the NFC Divisional Round.
Philly lead the league in quarterback sacks (55) and have averaged the third-most yards per game this season (394.1) while also leading the NFL regarding turnovers with a differential of +12.
If there is a flaw in this stingy defensive unit, it might be the struggles they have had against the run, conceding a 5.2-yard average to the Bears' David Montgomery last week and allowing a 4.4-yard average versus running backs this year.
When opposing QBs manage to get their throws away, Philly can count on perhaps the best cover unit in the NFL to bail them out, holding wide receivers to a low 75.6 rating on the year.
During the off-season, the Eagles management made it a priority to give Hurts some big play pass catchers to throw to, and those moves have paid off handsomely, with the NFC East leaders boasting over 300 yards through the air in two of their previous three fixtures.
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Team News
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Micah Parsons is the only Cowboy to register a sack in their previous two games, as he collected his 13th of the year versus the Jags in a game where CeeDee Lamb caught seven balls for 126 yards.
Noah Brown had a pair of TD grabs in that defeat, Peyton Hendershot came up with a touchdown catch and Dak Prescott tossed two interceptions to Rayshawn Jenkins, including a pick-six in overtime.
As a duo, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott can be pretty formidable in the Dallas backfield, with Pollard averaging 5.5 yards per carry in 2022 and the former Ohio State product coming in at 4.1.
DaRon Bland had an interception in the defeat to Jacksonville, while Jayron Kearse and Anthony Barr combined to make 12 tackles.
Leighton Vander Esch is dealing with stiffness in his neck, DeMarcus Lawrence sprained his foot, Jake Ferguson has been limited at practice because of a concussion and Dorance Armstrong remains questionable due to a knee injury.
With the status of Hurts up in the air, the spotlight could be on Eagles backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who last saw the field at the start of December, going 1/2 for 11 yards against the Tennessee Titans, though the former Jacksonville Jaguar will have an outstanding receiving corps to count upon, led by AJ Brown who has a TD catch in two of his last three outings.
The Eagles' secondaries are as good as they come, with Darius Slay holding receivers to a rating in the low 60s and James Bradberry keeping pass catchers to a mid-40s rating, while Haason Reddick has at least a half a sack in his last six encounters and Miles Sanders is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the ground.
K'Von Wallace has a sore hip, Zach Pascal is in concussion protocol, while Tyree Jackson and Reed Blankenship are dealing with knee injuries.
Head To Head
Three of the last four meetings between these division rivals have gone the way of the Cowboys, who beat the Eagles handily in their previous outing in Arlington 41-21.
Dalton Schultz caught two TD passes in that ball game, Cedrick Wilson had a touchdown catch and Trevon Diggs came up with a pick-six.
In the 2009 season, Dallas and Philly met in the NFC Wildcard Round when Tony Romo hit Miles Austin and Josh Phillips for touchdown catches, while Felix Jones ran for a 73-yard score enabling the Cowboys to advance with a 34-14 triumph.
There have not been a lot of close encounters between the two lately, though Dallas came away with a 29-23 triumph in overtime during the 2018 campaign as Prescott threw a TD pass to Amari Cooper and Brett Maher booted three field goals.
Earlier this season, they met in the City of Brotherly Love, with the Eagles getting second-quarter touchdowns from Brown and Sanders, while DeVonta Smith put the game to bed in the fourth, finding the end zone from seven yards away as Philly won 26-17.
We say: Dallas Cowboys 27-24 Philadelphia Eagles
If it happens to be Minshew starting, that will increase the Cowboys' odds of winning, but even so, Prescott has had some solid bounce-back performances throughout the year.
Combine that with Dallas' solid one-two punch on the ground, and they should have a reasonable opportunity to upset the Eagles on Saturday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
