The Green Bay Packers will be battling for their playoff lives on Sunday as they ring in the New Year by hosting their arch-rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, at Lambeau Field.
Last season's NFC North champions have put themselves back in the playoff mix, winning three consecutive games, while Minnesota will win that division in 2022-23, after capturing back-to-back contests by a field goal.
Match preview
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Just when it looked like all was lost, it appears as though the magic of Christmas has hit the Cheeseheads, who find themselves narrowly behind the Washington Commanders in the NFC playoff race, with Green Bay trailing them simply due to having suffered one more defeat.
Matt LaFleur has seen his defence come up big over their three-game winning streak, holding the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins to under 21 points, creating eight takeaways over that stretch.
Despite allowing some big numbers through the air to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill last weekend, the Packers played the pass as well as could probably be expected, intercepting Tua Tagovailoa three times and holding the Dolphins pivot to a low 80.8 rating.
Slowing down opposing tight ends has been a trouble spot for the secondary all year though, allowing a 110.2 rating to them in 2022, which has them 25th in the NFL.
Their offence has not been as flashy as we have seen in past seasons, but they have a touchdown through the air in all but one game this year while also running for at least one score in each of the last four weeks.
They come into this critical encounter with two victories in their last three games played at Lambeau, going 5-0 at home against their division since November 2020.
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A week after digging themselves a gigantic hole against the Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota were in a much more manageable situation at home against the New York Giants last weekend, and in the end pulled it out with a dramatic field goal to win 27-24.
Dramatic finishes have become like another day at the office for them, with 11 of their 12 victories this season coming by a single score and five by just a field goal.
When you are trailing by 33 points, you have no choice but to throw the ball, but in the case of the Vikings, that is what they excel at offensively, throwing for over 200 yards versus New York, and over 1,00 combined yards in their previous three games.
Another reason they throw so often is because they struggle to run the ball consistently well, ranked 28th in the NFL, hitting the 100-yard mark only once over the last six weeks.
They have some exceptional pass catchers to throw to, though the flip side of that is that Kevin O'Connell's secondary have been subpar through most of 2022, allowing an average passer rating over 93, conceding at least one touchdown through the air in three straight games.
It is good that they have such an explosive offence to count upon because they struggle to get off the field defensively, allowing over 400 yards to the opposition in six of their last seven encounters.
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Team News
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For a second successive week, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a touchdown pass along with an interception, finding veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis last weekend against the Dolphins, AJ Dillon ran for a score for the fourth consecutive game, Allen Lazard had 61 yards receiving, while Christian Watson led them in catches with six.
Jaire Alexander continued his stellar play at cornerback, as he was involved in four turnovers versus Miami, collecting his fifth interception of the year and allowing a rating of only 66.8 in 2022, while the other picks last weekend came courtesy of De'Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas, while Adrian Amos made nine tackles.
Keisean Nixon could be out with a pulled groin, Yosh Nijman is dealing with a shoulder sprain, Elgton Jenkins has an issue with his knee and David Bakhtiari remains questionable with a knee/abdomen injury.
Kirk Cousins has thrown for three or more touchdowns in back-to-back games, one to Justin Jefferson, who leads all receivers this season with 1,756 yards, TJ Hockenson had 13 catches, two for touchdowns against New York, while Dalvin Cook averaged below five yards per carry for the fourth time in his last five games and Greg Joseph booted a 61-yard field goal as time expired, his second game-winning kick in successive games.
Patrick Peterson collected his fourth interception of the season last weekend, Danielle Hunter had two sacks, Eric Kendricks made seven tackles, while Duke Shelley led the way with nine.
Cameron Dantzler has a sore ankle, Ezra Cleveland and James Lynch are both suffering from shoulder strains and Garrett Bradbury might not be available because of a back injury.
Head To Head
These teams have two of the most loyal fanbases in the NFL, and with it perhaps the most hated rivalry in league history dating back decades.
In 1993, a fifth field goal by Fuad Reveiz's gave Minnesota a 15-13 victory as quarterback Jim McMahon found Eric Guilford on that drive to put the Colombian-born kicker in field goal range.
In a famous Monday Night Football outing five years later, Vikings rookie wideout Randy Moss made five catches for 190 yards and a pair of scores in a 37-24 victory.
Moss was at it again in an NFC Wild Card game at Lambeau in the 2004 season, as he caught a 34-yard touchdown pass from Daunte Culpepper, though it was his taunting after finding the end zone which was talked about afterwards, when he pretended to moon the Packer fans in what at the time was deemed one of the most disgraceful celebrations ever seen in the NFL.
Packers receiver Antonio Freeman made one of the most famous catches in a Monday Nighter in 2000 when these two rivals faced off.
He was on the ground when Cris Dishman deflected a pass from Brett Favre into Freeman's welcoming arms as the Green Bay receiver got up and ran it in for a touchdown, prompting legendary announcer Al Michaels to say, "He did what".
In 2010 Favre was the Vikings quarterback and helped out his old team by tossing three interceptions as Green Bay won 28-24.
In more recent times, these teams met in the opening game of the year when Jefferson had a pair of TD grabs, helping the Vikings to a 23-7 triumph.
Nearly a year ago, it was the Packers' turn to come out on top as Rodgers connected with Allen Lazard and Davante Adams for second-quarter touchdowns, with Green Bay coming away with a 37-10 victory.
We say: Green Bay Packers 20-19 Minnesota Vikings
When their backs have been up against the wall, we tend to see the best out of Green Bay, and we expect that will happen again this weekend.
Look for Alexandre to be a focal point in the secondary for the home team, creating some game-changing plays to tip the scales in favour of the Cheeseheads.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
