Sunday will be a battle between redemption and legacy as the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Super Bowl LVII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
San Fran erased a 17-point half-time deficit in the NFC Championship Game, defeating the Detroit Lions 34-31, while the Chiefs claimed the AFC title for a second successive campaign, beating the Baltimore Ravens 17-10.
Match preview
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Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Chiefs' defence was the backbone of this team, and that unit got them over the line against the top-seeded Ravens, limiting NFL MVP Lamar Jackson to 54 yards rushing and holding Baltimore to a mere 10 points.
It was bend but do not break for the defence in the AFC title game, with KC forcing three turnovers in that contest, one on the goal line, while the Ravens were just four for 17 on third downs.
The KC offence, which had been invisible through large portions of the regular season, have picked it up when it matters most, averaging 127 rushing yards per game in the playoffs and 23.3 points a contest, while they have yet to toss an interception.
For years, the label on head coach Andy Reid was that he could not win the big game, but if his Chiefs come out on top this weekend, he would join former legendary coaches Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh with three Super Bowl wins, the third-most all-time behind Chuck Noll (four) and Bill Belichick (six).
Kansas City have some elite cornerbacks who have been among the best in the league all season, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (176.5).
Against the run, however, it is a different story as KC allowed 4.5 yards per carry, though they have still managed to win despite this weakness, going 7-0 this season when giving up 110 rushing yards or fewer.
In the trenches, they were a handful for offensive linemen with the second-most team sacks in the regular season (57) while registering three in the playoffs.
With a win on Sunday, they would become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots in 2004, in what is the fourth Super Bowl appearance in five seasons for KC.
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After a forgettable opening half of football two weeks ago, the Niners slumbering offence came to life in the second half, advancing to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2019 campaign.
As evidenced by what we saw in the conference championship, no lead is safe when you face the 49ers, who put up 30+ points in 10 games this season, the third-most in the NFL.
Despite having a solid mix of pass catchers at his disposal, Kyle Shanahan often went to the run game first, with the Niners having the eighth-most rushing attempts in 2023 while sitting dead last in pass attempts.
They averaged the third-most team rushing yards per game during the regular season (140.5) while finishing second in total offensive yards (398.4).
Defensively is where the 49ers regressed the most this season, allowing the fewest yards-per-game in 2022 (300.6) but finishing eighth in 2023 (303.9).
In the secondary, though, this group have been solid, holding opposing quarterbacks to the fourth-lowest rating in the NFL (79.6) and also boasting the fourth-lowest rating to tight ends (86.3).
So far in the playoffs, they have registered just two sacks but have been able to generate takeaways, creating three turnovers while only throwing one interception.
While they have the most explosive running back in the league, the Niners have struggled to contain opposing rushing attacks, allowing 182 yards on the ground in the NFC Championship Game, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in three successive encounters.
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Team News
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First-team All-Pro guard Joe Thuney missed the Chiefs game against Baltimore with a pectoral injury and has been ruled out for this game, Jerick McKinnon saw limited practice time this week due to a groin strain, while the status of Kadarius Toney is up in the air, inactive in the last six games but not on the injured list.
Patrick Mahomes is second in passing yards this post-season (718) and has yet to throw a pick, Travis Kelce has three touchdown catches in the playoffs, breaking the career post-season receptions record held by former Niner Jerry Rice along the way, while Isiah Pacheco leads the league in playoff rushing (254 yards).
Rashee Rice has 223 yards through the air in the playoffs, the second-most on the team behind Kelce (262), while Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught a critical deep ball to ice their game against Baltimore.
Trent McDuffie was named to the First-team All-Pro in 2023 as he and fellow cornerback L'Jarius Sneed have been among the best in the league all season, with the latter forcing a goal line fumble two weeks ago, while George Karlaftis is second in sacks this post-season, Chris Jones only has a half sack and Nick Bolton has the most tackles (27).
San Francisco's Trent Williams did not practice this week because of a minor issue, Arik Armstead saw limited practice time due to a sore knee, as did Oren Burks with a shoulder strain, while Kalia Davis and Ambry Thomas have minor ankle problems and could see the field on Sunday.
The Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing over the regular season (1,459) and has 188 in two playoff games with four scores, while the 49ers are 12-1 when he rushes for at least 75 yards.
Brock Purdy is the lowest drafted QB (#262 in 2022) to start a Super Bowl, boasting the highest passer rating in the regular season (113.0), finding Brandon Aiyuk for his only TD pass two weeks ago, with George Kittle, the league leader in tight end receiving yards in 2023 (1,020) being the only other San Fran player with a TD catch in the playoffs.
Charvarius Ward, who was with the Chiefs when they beat San Fran in Super Bowl LIV, led them with five interceptions in the regular season, Dre Greenlaw had two in their Divisional Round win versus the Green Bay Packers, while Nick Bosa had their only two sacks against Detroit.
Head To Head
On Sunday, we will witness the eighth Super Bowl rematch all-time with these teams meeting in the big game during the 2019 season, when the Chiefs came back to win 31-20 with Damien Williams coming up with a fourth-quarter touchdown on the ground and through the air.
Kyle Juszczyk had a touchdown in a losing effort on that occasion, with Deebo Samuel leading them with five catches for 39 yards and Fred Warner collecting an interception.
The last time these teams met during the 2022 regular season, Mecole Hardman found the end zone twice for KC and Justin Watson had a TD catch as the Chiefs won 44-23.
San Francisco have not beaten KC since 2014, when Colin Kaepernick was at the controls, finding Stevie Johnson for a nine-yard score, while Phil Dawson booted five field goals in a 22-17 triumph.
We say: Kansas City Chiefs 24-21 San Francisco 49ers
Mahomes appears to be dialled, while Purdy is still making his share of mistakes, while the Chiefs defensive front and secondary have shut down the best offensive weapons all season, and we believe they will again on Sunday.
Joel Lefevre
