It will be first versus worst on Thursday Night Football in the NFL as the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills head to Gillette Stadium for a matchup with the last place New England Patriots.
Both teams played on American Thanksgiving a week ago, with the Pats falling 33-26 at the Minnesota Vikings while the Bills edged the Detroit Lions 28-25.
Match preview
© Reuters
Last week was a missed opportunity for Bill Belichick and his Patriots, leading by a field goal heading into the fourth quarter, as they failed to close the deal and were outscored 10-0 in the final 15 minutes.
The second-best defensive unit in the NFL, regarding sacks, only managed to get to Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins once, while they allowed 301 passing yards, 214 more than they had conceded through the air in their previous two games combined.
Their offence has not tossed an interception in three straight games, but they have had difficulty running the ball effectively, failing to hit the century mark on the ground in any of those encounters.
They have limited mistakes but are ranked near the bottom of the league regarding passing (24th), averaging 216.9 yards per game through the air.
After conceding 70 points in two of their first three games at home, they have only allowed six points in their last two fixtures at Foxborough, defeating the Indianapolis Colts (26-3) and New York Jets (10-3) along the way.
New England are tied for ninth in turnover differential, with a ratio of +1 in 2022, producing an interception in all but two games this year.
© Reuters
It has not been an easy stretch for Sean McDermott and his Bills, but good teams find ways to win, and that is what they have done in back-to-back contests.
The Bills' last four games have been decided by a single score, with Buffalo emerging victorious in their previous two encounters.
They turned the ball over at least once in three of their four games played in November, though they caused a pair of fumbles in their victory at Ford Field against the Lions.
Moving the ball on offence has rarely been a problem for the Bills this season, averaging the second-most yards per game (415.9) and third in average passing yards per game (279.2).
After winning five of their six encounters versus their division in 2021, they have not been as successful this season, going 0-2 so far this year with losses to the Miami Dolphins (21-19) and New York Jets (20-17).
The Bills have been outscored in the final quarter of four of their last five contests, conceding 11 points to the Lions last Thursday, while putting up only nine.
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Patriots QB Mac Jones went 28/39 for 382 yards against Minnesota, throwing touchdown passes to Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholor, while Rhamondre Stevenson had just seven touches for 36 yards in the loss.
Matthew Judon, who came into last week as the league-leader in sacks with 13, did not register one against the Vikings, Josh Uche had one, Kyle Dugger led all players with eight tackles, while Jonathan Jones had six.
Isaiah Wynn is dealing with a sore foot, despite a sprained knee DeVante Parker still had 80 yards receiving last Thursday, Anfernee Jennings played on a bad back and David Andrews will be questionable for this game because of a thigh injury.
Even though he threw an interception, Bills quarterback Josh Allen still put up 253 yards passing and ran for a score, while also hitting Stefon Diggs and Isaiah McKenzie for scores and Devin Singletary had 72 yards rushing on 14 carries.
Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones each had a sack against Detroit, Jordan Poyer had eight tackles, while Dane Jackson and AJ Klein each had six.
Greg Rousseau and David Quessenberry are dealing with sprained ankles, Mitch Morse has a sore elbow and Tremaine Edmunds is out with a groin and heel injury.
Head To Head
New England owns a 77-47-1 overall record versus Buffalo, but the Bills won the last two contests, with Dawson Knox catching a pair of first-quarter touchdowns and Singletary running for two more in the second quarter, winning 47-17 in the previous outing.
The closest contest between these teams recently came in 2020, when Damien Harris and Cam Newton each ran for a touchdown in a 24-21 victory for New England.
In the last Pats victory against Buffalo in December of last year, Harris ran for a 64-yard TD, and Nick Folk kicked a pair of field goals as they triumphed 14-10.
We say: New England Patriots 20-24 Buffalo Bills
The Bills seem to have got their offensive game back on track, and we expect Allen to scramble for significant gains and find plenty of open receivers as the Pats defence blitzes effectively, but they do leave openings in the secondary when bringing the heat.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
