One of the showcase matchups on Sunday in the NFL will feature the league's third-best offence in the Miami Dolphins travelling to Levi's Stadium to battle the top defensive unit in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers.
Miami have won five in a row and are tied with the Buffalo Bills for first in the AFC East at 8-3, while the Niners moved a game above the Seattle Seahawks to lead the NFC West, winning their fourth consecutive contest last Sunday.
Match preview
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Kyle Shanahan came into this season knowing that he had a ton of weapons offensively at his disposal, but he has his defence to thank for their recent success.
The Niners have conceded fewer than 20 points in each of their previous four games, only allowing more than that on two occasions all season.
Indeed, their defensive unit is as stingy as they come, allowing the fewest yards per game in 2022 (281.7), but they will need to be better at pass coverage this weekend, currently allowing a 90.9 rating to wide receivers this year.
Winning those battles in the trenches will be critical on Sunday, and they boast a solid pass rush with 33 sacks this season and a pressure rating of 29.6%.
The heart of San Francisco's offence lies in their rushing attack, averaging 124.4 yards on the ground per game, good for 11th in the NFL, though they only managed 96 yards in a 13-0 victory over the New Orleans Saints last week, despite five players getting at least one carry.
Keeping drives alive was an issue for the Niners last week against New Orleans, as they went 5/13 on third-down conversions.
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From a team that does not concede many points, we have the Dolphins, who have put up their share of points lately, scoring 30 or more in their last four victories.
Mike McDaniel has been able to rely all season on a group of explosive and reliable receivers, who have enabled their young quarterback to move the ball effectively, with 291.9 yards passing per game in 2022, the second-best average in the NFL.
Pass protection will be paramount for them against San Fran, and they had a hard time dealing with the Texans' defensive line last weekend, allowing five quarterback sacks.
Defensively, they have done a nice job at containing opposing running attacks, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry so far this season.
In terms of pass coverage, they have played wide receivers well, allowing a rating of fewer than 90 against them, but staying with tight ends is another story, as Miami have allowed a 125.6 rating to that position.
Miami are 2-1 versus NFC teams this season, with both victories coming on the road, scoring 66 points combined versus the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears, while they have not lost a road contest against the opposite conference since falling 45-17 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in October of last year.
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Team News
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Charvarius Ward will face a tough challenge for San Francisco on Sunday against a dynamic set of Dolphins receivers, and he has allowed a low rating of 68.5 this season, with nine passes defended, Nick Bosa is up to 11.5 sacks, the third-most in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey averaged just 2.9 yards per carry versus New Orleans, while Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 222 yards and a touchdown to Jauan Jennings.
Talanoa Hufanga led the Niners with six tackles last week, Fred Warner had five and George Kittle averaged 8.7 yards per catch.
Elijah Mitchell suffered a sprained MCL versus New Orleans, Spencer Burford has a sore ankle, Deebo Samuel is dealing with a knee contusion but is expected to play, while Arik Armstead continues to work his way back from separate foot and ankle injuries.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been electric this season, leading the league with a passer rating of 115.7 and first in yards per attempt at 9.0.
Tyreek Hill is first in the NFL regarding receiving yards (1,233), Jaylen Waddle is fifth (963 yards) and former San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has rushed for 543 yards.
Christian Wilkins has been among their best defensive players this season, with three tackles last week against the Texans, Elandon Roberts had seven, including a sack, Andrew Van Ginkel had an interception and Jaelan Phillips posted six tackles.
Terron Armstead was missed along the offensive line last week as he is dealing with a toe injury, Durham Smythe has a sore hamstring, Raekwon Davis has a knee problem and Tanner Conner is suffering from a knee and back issue.
Head To Head
These teams have not met since 2020, and on that occasion, Jason Sanders kicked five field goals, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a pair of touchdown passes as Miami won 43-17.
The Dolphins lead the overall series 8-6, though the 49ers won the most meaningful game versus Miami historically, beating them 38-16 in Super Bowl XIX as Niners QB Joe Montana tossed three touchdown passes, two of which went to Roger Craig, while Miami's Dan Marino threw a pair of interceptions.
San Francisco's last triumph over Miami happened in December 2012, when David Akers kicked a pair of field goals, Frank Gore ran for a score and Colin Kaepernick had a 50-yard running score in the fourth quarter as the Niners won 27-13.
We say: San Francisco 49ers 20-24 Miami Dolphins
Miami have such an explosive offence that all it takes is one or two plays to change the complexion of a game, and we expect their dynamic receivers to make the difference on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
