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Milan logo
Serie A | Gameweek 3
Sep 12, 2021 at 5pm UK
San Siro
Lazio logo

AC Milan
2 - 0
Lazio

Leao (45'), Ibrahimovic (67')
Bakayoko (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Marusic (17'), Reina (45+5'), Alberto (45+7'), Hysaj (57')
Sarri (90+5')

Preview: AC Milan vs. Lazio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Something must give on Sunday evening, as two sides with perfect Serie A records meet at San Siro, with AC Milan hosting their capital counterparts Lazio.

An Olivier Giroud-inspired Milan coasted to victory at Cagliari last time out, while Maurizio Sarri's visitors have been among the goals and sit top of the early-season standings.


Match preview

AC Milan's Olivier Giroud celebrates against Sampdoria on August 23, 2021© Reuters

After years of service to the national cause, Olivier Giroud was not selected for the France squad for this month's World Cup qualifiers, but it may not be long before his return after he bagged a brace in Milan's 4-1 win over Cagliari at San Siro a fortnight ago.

Having left European champions Chelsea in search of more regular football, Giroud made a good impression in the 1-0 win at Sampdoria which opened the Rossoneri's 2021-22 campaign, and then followed up by scoring the third and fourth in what turned out to be a runaway victory over the Isolani.

Stefano Pioli's side were given the lead by Sandro Tonali's stunning free-kick - his first ever Milan goal - before Alessandro Deiola surprisingly levelled the scores three minutes later. They only took a minute to regain the lead through Rafael Leao, though, and then never looked back.

Having since secured the signatures of Tiemoue Bakayoko and former delivery man Junior Messias - a revelation with relegated Crotone last season - Pioli has seemingly moved on from the loss of Gianluigi Donnarumma to Paris St. Germain and is intent on building towards another Scudetto challenge, after last term's attempt foundered in the final stages.

There is also a long-awaited return to the Champions League to look forward to, plus the looming league clash with Juventus next weekend. First, though, their hopes of starting a second successive season with three straight wins is sure to be fully tested by Lazio on Sunday.

Nonetheless, the Rossoneri have lost only one of their last 31 home league games against the Roman club in since 1990 - including last year's 3-2 win at the Meazza - so precedent will certainly be on their side.

Juventus coach Maurizio Sarri gestures against Atletico Madrid on September 18, 2019© Reuters

'Sarri-ball' is alive and well, or so it seems, as Lazio have made a blistering start to life under their new boss - rattling in nine goals across their first two league games; a record for the Biancocelesti in Serie A.

Maligned despite lifting trophies at both Chelsea and Juventus, now Maurizio Sarri aims to re-establish his reputation as a proponent of the beautiful game, while also improving the fortunes of a side which missed out on a top-four finish last term.

An opening day victory over Serie B champions Empoli may have been expected - though the Tuscans then went on to beat Juventus the following week - but a 6-1 thrashing of Spezia certainly caught the attention, particularly as it came soon after the departure of prized forward Joaquin Correa to Inter.

Lazio demonstrated that they can still prosper without the Argentina international and his current boss Simone Inzaghi, who also left Rome this summer, by overcoming an early deficit for the second match in succession with a first-half hat-trick from star striker Ciro Immobile.

Despite his international difficulties, the Italy forward has not only got back on the goal trail with four strikes from his first two league outings but has also scored seven times in 13 matches against Milan in Serie A. Furthermore, his first hat-trick for the Aquile came against them in 2017, and he has now scored in each of his last three league encounters with the Rossoneri.

Having inherited a side that were regular top-four contenders under Inzaghi before ending last season in sixth place, Sarri's recruitment has been restricted by financial difficulties at his new club this summer. Nevertheless, while Immobile remains, so do Lazio's hopes of success.

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • W

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Lazio Serie A form:
  • W
  • W

Lazio form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

AC Milan striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic pictured on January 9, 2021© Reuters

With impeccable timing, given a potential striker shortage on Sunday, the return of Zlatan Ibrahimovic could come against Lazio. The Swedish superstar may immediately replace Olivier Giroud up front, as the Frenchman previously contracted COVID-19 and has only just returned a first negative test.

If the ex-Arsenal striker is not ready to return, then Ibrahimovic should be supported by in-form playmaker Brahim Diaz, who has flourished since Hakan Calhanoglu departed for city rivals Inter in the summer.

Influential midfielder Franck Kessie is also back in action after a brief spell on the sidelines with a muscle strain, meaning that Stefano Pioli has a selection dilemma to resolve - needing to pick one from Rade Krunic, Ismael Bennacer and Sandro Tonali to partner the Ivorian in the engine room.

Lazio also have two first-team regulars fully recovered and ready to serve at San Siro, as Manuel Lazzari and Luiz Felipe have both been passed fit for the trip to Milan, giving Maurizio Sarri the luxury of a complete squad to choose from.

He is expected to persist with a front three comprised of Pedro, Felipe Anderson and top scorer Ciro Immobile, in a familiar 4-3-3 formation.

Deadline day signing Mattia Zaccagni - who has already scored twice in two games for Verona so far this season - should start on the bench, but will most likely be given a debut during the second half.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Kessie, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Rebic; Ibrahimovic

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Lazzari, Felipe, Acerbi, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Immobile, Anderson


SM words green background

We say: AC Milan 3-2 Lazio

There is little to suggest that the flow of goals these sides have produced will slow this weekend, as even more attacking talent is available to both bosses after further recruitment and the return of injured players.

Only Milan's superb record on home soil over the past couple of years could give them the edge, as their full-backs make the most of space vacated by Lazio's progressive approach.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 51.16%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 25.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AC Milan vs Lazio

AC Milan
71.4%
Draw
13.8%
Lazio
14.8%
203
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AC Milan's Olivier Giroud celebrates against Sampdoria on August 23, 2021
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14Como122461323-1010
15Genoa12246922-1310
16CagliariCagliari11236919-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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