Having got back on track with a midweek win, AC Milan return to San Siro on Saturday, seeking another Serie A win against rock-bottom Salernitana.
Successive defeats had provided a first serious setback for the second-placed Rossoneri before they swept aside Genoa on Wednesday, while their southern counterparts fell to an 11th league defeat of the campaign.
Match preview
© Reuters
A much-improved showing from Milan helped them to end a run of four league games without victory, as their 3-0 win at Genoa took the Rossoneri back to within a point of the Serie A summit.
Following on from his crucial Champions League intervention against Porto last month, summer signing Junior Messias excelled on his first start for the club, doubling Milan's lead just before the break and then slotting home another during the second half, after Zlatan Ibrahimovic had opened the scoring.
Their convincing win at Marassi in midweek sees Milan back ahead of city rivals Inter in the table, and they are currently tucked in just behind leaders Napoli following the latter's slip-up at Sassuolo.
Rossoneri coach Stefano Pioli will therefore hope that his side's slump is at an end, as they are set to face crucial games against Liverpool and Napoli before the upcoming mid-winter break.
Having conceded 16 goals in their previous nine Serie A games - including seven in defeats to Fiorentina and Sassuolo - a clean sheet was welcome for Milan on Wednesday, and they will now fancy their chances of keeping another versus the league's lowliest side. Against Salernitana, then, Pioli will expect his men to seal a sixth win from eight on home soil this weekend.
© Reuters
Yet another reverse at Stadio Arechi in midweek represented Salernitana's sixth loss from eight home matches in Serie A this season, as their latest visitors returned north with all three points.
A 2-0 defeat to under-pressure Juventus - following goals in either half from Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata - would hardly register as a surprise for the modest club from Campania, who were promoted from Serie B last spring; however, they remain rooted to the foot of the table approaching the halfway stage of their comeback campaign, with both Milan clubs still to play before the end of the year.
Between their matches with the Milanese giants, Salernitana must also visit a flamboyant Fiorentina side and then journey to Genoa for a Coppa Italia tie, as the hectic schedule fails to relent.
Currently conceding goals at an unsustainable rate of over two per game, the Granata have won just two of their 14 league matches this season, and have picked up just a solitary point since the end of October, so coach Stefano Colantuono will be wary of getting cut adrift should results not improve soon.
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
The latest in a long line of defensive injuries beset one of Milan's mainstays on Wednesday, as centre-back Simon Kjaer suffered a serious knee injury and was forced off after only five minutes in Genoa.
As the Danish defender is now set to undergo surgery to repair ligament damage, the recently returned Fikayo Tomori should be joined by either Matteo Gabbia or Alessio Romagnoli at the heart of the hosts' defence, with the latter now back from suspension.
However, Davide Calabria, Ismael Bennacer and Ante Rebic are all struggling for fitness and Olivier Giroud is currently hampered by a hamstring problem which could keep him out until 2022. With Zlatan Ibrahimovic taking a much-needed rest, Pietro Pellegri is set to start for the first time in attack.
Salernitana, meanwhile, opted for a back five against Juventus in midweek and could retain that setup at San Siro, with most of the same personnel staying in place on Saturday.
An injury to Cedric Gondo during the draw at Cagliari last week puts the Ivorian forward's place up front in jeopardy, so Simy and Milan Djuric will battle it out with Federico Bonazzoli - the Granata's only goalscorer in their last five outings - to start up front.
Stefan Strandberg, Matteo Ruggeri and Mamadou Coulibaly are expected to miss out through injury, but veteran winger Franck Ribery has recovered from a knee problem in time to make the trip north.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Romagnoli, Tomori, Hernandez; Bakayoko, Kessie; Leao, Diaz, Saelemaekers; Pellegri
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Belec; Zortea, Veseli, Gyomber, Bogdan, Ranieri; Di Tacchio, Schiavone, L. Coulibaly; Ribery; Simy
We say: AC Milan 2-0 Salernitana
A rejuvenated Milan were far livelier in midweek, so the opportunity to welcome struggling Salernitana to San Siro presents them with another chance to secure three points to keep their Scudetto challenge ticking over.
Goals have been in particularly short supply for the southern side, so the hosts can flood forward without fear of conceding and cruise to victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 68.3%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 12.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.9%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for AC Milan in this match.
