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Serie A | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
San Siro
Venezia

AC Milan
2 - 0
Venezia

Diaz (68'), Hernandez (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Forte (25'), Caldara (77')

Preview: AC Milan vs. Venezia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Venezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

AC Milan will be looking to maintain their unbeaten start to the new Serie A campaign when they host newly-promoted Venezia on Wednesday evening.

The two sides will meet for the first time since February 2002, when they Rossoneri claimed a 4-1 victory away from home.


Match preview

AC Milan's Ante Rebic celebrates scoring against Juventus on September 19, 2021© Reuters

AC Milan are just one of four Serie A sides who remain unbeaten so far this season, after claiming a 1-1 draw against Italian giants Juventus last weekend.

Alvaro Morata's fourth-minute chip was cancelled out in the 76th minute when Ante Rebic headed in from a Sandro Tonali corner, with both sides eventually forced to share the spoils.

After claiming maximum points against Sampdoria, Cagliari and Lazio in their first three matches, Stefano Pioli's men were unable to maintain their 100% record against Juve, but Sunday's result means they stay level with city rivals and current holders Inter Milan at the top of the table.

The Rossoneri head into Wednesday's encounter with a good record against Venezia, having lost only one of their last 12 top-flight meetings against them. They also have an impressive record against newly-promoted sides, after winning 13 and drawing five of their last 19 matches against them, keeping 11 clean sheets in the process.

AC Milan, who are keen to challenge once again for their first Scudetto since 2010-11, would move onto 13 points from their first five league games if they were to win at San Siro, the same tally they had accumulated at this stage last season and one they have achieved on only three previous occasions this century.

AC Milan head coach Stefano Pioli pictured in August 2021© Reuters

Venezia were unable to follow up their first win of the campaign against Empoli with another three points, as they came up short at home against Spezia, losing 2-1 last weekend.

Pietro Ceccaroni's 59th-minute header cancelled out Simone Bastoni's first-half opener, however the hosts suffered a dramatic blow in the 94th minute when a stunning 25-yard strike from Mehdi Bourabia snatched all three points at the death for the visitors.

Paolo Zanetti's men have now conceded beyond the 89th minute in each of their last three league games, something the 38-year-old will be keen for his side to cut out quickly.

Venezia, competing in their first top-flight campaign for 19 years, now sit just one place above the relegation zone and seven points behind Wednesday's opponents AC Milan in second place.

The Arancioneroverdi last beat Milan back in March 2000, winning 1-0 on home soil, but they are set to face a challenging encounter in midweek and repeating their success from over 20 years ago could prove to be a tall order.

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Venezia Serie A form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L

Venezia form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

AC Milan's Olivier Giroud celebrates against Sampdoria on August 23, 2021© Reuters

AC Milan centre-back Simon Kjaer was the latest name added to their lengthy injury list, after limping off with a hamstring problem midway through the first half against Juventus.

The Denmark international joins Olivier Giroud (back), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Achilles), Rade Krunic (muscle), Junior Messias (fitness), Tiemoue Bakayoko (leg) and Davide Calabria (muscle) on the treatment table.

Former Chelsea defender Fikayo Tomori is set to switch from the right side of defence to centre-back in Kjaer's absence, which could also see Alessandro Florenzi handed a start at right-back.

Aside from enforced changes, Pioli is not expected to make too many alterations to his starting lineup, so the likes of Rebic, Alexis Saelemaekers and Brahim Diaz are all set to keep their places in the side.

As for Venezia, Luca Fiordilino (shoulder) Lauri Ala-Myllymaki (knee) and Luca Lezzerini (muscle) are all ruled out of Wednesday's game with injuries.

Chelsea loanee Ethan Ampadu could be in line to make his debut for the club after completing a period in quarantine, and it will be intriguing to see whether the versatile Welshman is used as a midfielder or a defender in Zanetti's side.

Strikers Thomas Henry and David Okereke are expected to start once again, with winger Dennis Johnsen set to join them in a three-man attack.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Rebic

Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Mazzocchi, Caldara, Ampadu, Schnegg; Heymans, Vacca, Busio; Okereke, Henry, Johnsen


SM words green background

We say: AC Milan 2-0 Venezia

AC Milan will be strong favourites to claim all three points on Wednesday, even though a number of first-team players are ruled out injured.

The hosts still have plenty of quality among their ranks and we expect them to secure a routine victory at San Siro, extending their unbeaten league run to five matches.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Oliver Thomas

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 70.7%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 11.26%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for AC Milan in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AC Milan vs Venezia

AC Milan
93.5%
Draw
6.5%
Venezia
0.0%
155
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli1410222191232
2Atalanta BCAtalanta14101336162031
3Inter Milan1384131141728
4Fiorentina1384127101728
5Lazio1491429171228
6Juventus146802281426
7AC Milan136432314922
8Bologna135621816221
9Udinese145271621-517
10Empoli143741014-416
11Parma143652022-215
12Torino144371620-415
13CagliariCagliari143561524-914
14Genoa143561324-1114
15Roma143471420-613
16Lecce14347722-1513
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1440101733-1612
18Como142571426-1211
19Monza141761217-510
20VeneziaVenezia1422101125-148


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