Eighth-placed Adana Demirspor continue their quest for a spot in the Turkish Super Lig's top four on Saturday, when they welcome Fatih Karagumruk to the KozArena.
The visitors currently sit 12th in the table, enough points away from the relegation zone to instead look upwards in an attempt to make up a five-point gap to fourth place.
Match preview
Adana Demirspor lost ground on the European positions last time out on Tuesday, when they travelled to second-placed Konyaspor, who defeated Vincenzo Montella's side 1-0 at the Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadyumu.
The visitors on that day would have felt that they created enough chances in the attacking third to get on the scoresheet, so they will have to aim to be more clinical on Saturday.
Throughout the season so far, Montella's side have not created a whole host of clear cut chances compared to the teams around them in the table, but still managed to score 30 goals in 22 outings, showing that they have what it takes to have that efficient edge in front of goal.
Adana Demirspor are likely to allow their visitors to have more possession of the ball on Saturday, having averaged less than 50% in each of their games this year, so the home team's biggest attacking threat could come from counter attacks.
Fatih Karagumruk's form of late has been up and down, sandwiching their last victory on Sunday with two defeats, having fallen to a 1-0 loss on Tuesday against Besiktas.
Volkan Demirel's side have not secured back-to-back wins under the Turkish manager's leadership, since he took over in December, and Karagumruk's only two sets of consecutive victories came back in October and September.
Taking that into consideration, perhaps it was no surprise that Demirel's side could not collect any points last time out, but that gives them an opportunity to bounce back this weekend and make up a lot of ground on their opposition.
Fatih Karagumruk's away record this season is quite similar to their points return on home soil, but they will have to be in fine form in front of goal against Adana Demirspor, as their defensive stats on the road are not so favourable.
Under interim manager Atilay Canel, Karagumruk managed an emphatic 4-0 victory against Adana in the reverse fixture in gameweek four of this Super Lig campaign, courtesy of goals from Andrea Bertolacci, Yann Karamoh and a brace from Aleksandar Pesic.
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
Team News
Ivory Coast international Simon Deli has played every minute of his country's Africa Cup of Nations campaign so far this month, and will continue to be absent from Adana Demirspor's matchday squad.
Joher Rassoul, Kaan Kanak and Mario Balotelli all remain sidelined due to injury, with their expected date of return pencilled in for a few weeks.
The home team are expected to operate in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Younes Belhanda playing in the number 10 role looking to create chances for the lone striker, who is likely to be Britt Assombalonga.
Fatih Karagumruk also have representation at the Africa Cup of Nations, with Ahmed Musa currently in Cameroon helping Nigeria top Group D.
Kerim Frei and Derrick Luckassen will be missing from the visitors' squad due to injury, while Ervin Zukanovic and Lucas Biglia are forced to sit out of Saturday's game due to suspension.
Caner Erkin came back into the side last time out in Zukanovic's absence, while Adnan Urgur started in midfield alongside Kristijan Bistrovic, who replaced Biglia.
Adana Demirspor possible starting lineup:
Muric; Uludag, Sanuc, Akaydin, Svensson; Kurt, Bjarnason; David, Belhanda, Akgun; Assombalonga
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Balkovec, Bekaroglu, Dursun; Ugur, Bistrovic; Karamoh, Durmaz, Mor; Borini
We say: Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagumruk
Both teams enter this fixture on the back of defeats in midweek, but Adana Demirspor have been in better overall form in the last couple of weeks, giving them the advantage this weekend.
Adana's home record is strong this season, only losing twice in 10 matches, while conceding just six goals in that time, which is why they are likely to keep a clean sheet on Saturday, then needing just one goal themselves.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adana Demirspor win with a probability of 50.48%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adana Demirspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adana Demirspor would win this match.
