In their first of five summer friendly battles, Premier League mainstays Brentford travel to Plough Lane for a date with AFC Wimbledon on Saturday afternoon.
While the Bees are yet to test their mettle in any pre-season fixtures, their hosts are out to make it three for three following their success over Peterborough United in Spain a week ago and a midweek beating of the Metropolitan Police.
Match preview
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As well as earning praise for his insightful analysis as a pundit during Euro 2024, Brentford boss Thomas Frank is now set for a fourth consecutive campaign of top-flight football with the capital outfit, who have well and truly left their mark on the Premier League.
The 2023-24 campaign was certainly on the more forgettable side of things as Premier League seasons go for Brentford, though, as they flirted with danger for a large portion of the campaign and ended up in an unspectacular 16th spot, albeit safely 13 points clear of the drop zone.
However, Brentford rediscovered some of their top-flight nous as the season drew to a close, only losing two of their final nine Premier League games, taking points off of FA Cup winners Manchester United and Champions League-bound Aston Villa in that sequence.
The expected departure of Ivan Toney will no doubt raise concerns about how Frank's men may fare in 2024-25, but the Dane has shown loyalty to the Bees despite talk of taking on a top job elsewhere; one wonders whether his name will eventually come into the England equation.
Speculation over Gareth Southgate's successor is best left for another day, though, as Frank puts his men through their paces before with Wimbledon, Benfica, Estrela da Amadora, Watford and Wolfsburg before their top-flight opener against Crystal Palace on August 18.
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Standing in Brentford's way first up is a Wimbledon side boasting a 100% record from their opening two pre-season fixtures, firstly edging out Peterborough 1-0 in the Spanish municipality of La Nucia courtesy of a solitary strike from Alistair Smith.
Upon their return to British shores, the League Two outfit subsequently made a jaunt to Imber Court to face the Metropolitan Police, where James Ball, Josh Kelly and Morgan Williams were on target in another summer success, with another clean sheet in tow.
Despite the manner of Wednesday's routine victory, Wimbledon boss Johnnie Jackson still insisted that a couple more reinforcements should be sought before the start of the 2024-25 season, name-checking the left-back area as a priority for the coming weeks.
Saturday's hosts were marooned in mid-table obscurity in the 2023-24 League Two campaign, finishing in 10th place to ensure a third-straight season in the fourth tier, which they conclude preparations for against Charlton Athletic, Maidenhead United and Barnet in their final three friendlies of the summer.
Brentford and the old Wimbledon crossed paths on several occasions in the 1970s and 1980s, but they have not butted heads competitively since the hosts' reformation, although the Bees' B side played out a goalless draw with the Wombles in a friendly this time last year.
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Team News
![England's Ivan Toney pictured during the warm-up on June 25, 2024 [IMAGO]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/26/ivan-toney.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "England's Ivan Toney pictured during the warm-up on June 25, 2024 [IMAGO]")
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There may not have been any serious proposals for Toney's signature just yet, but Brentford's talisman will be unavailable for Saturday's friendly either way on account of his Euro 2024 exploits; the same goes for Mathias Jensen, Christian Norgaard, Zanka, Mikkel Damsgaard and Mark Flekken.
Jamaica defender Ethan Pinnock will also be given more time to recover from his Copa America efforts, but new signing Igor Thiago might be involved, as the knee injury that he sustained at the end of the 2023-24 season with Club Brugge is not as severe as first feared.
With Flekken unavailable, David Raya joining Arsenal permanently and Thomas Strakosha jumping ship for AEK Athens in Greece, 21-year-old Matthew Cox is a candidate to start in goal, as is Iceland's Hakon Valdimarsson.
Aaron Hickey and Josh Dasilva are still on the mend from serious injuries, but speaking at the end of last season, Frank expressed hope that long-term knee victim Rico Henry would be fit for the start of pre-season.
As for Wimbledon, head coach Jackson revealed that 19-year-old striker Paris Lock suffered a "little knock" in the win over Met Police in midweek, but it is unclear if his issue will threaten his participation in Saturday's game.
Nevertheless, the Dons have strengthened their attacking ranks with the summer signings of Joe Pigott and Mathew Stevens, the former of whom was also singled out for praise by Jackson on Wednesday.
AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Ward; Young, O'Toole, Sutcliffe, Biler; Smith, Maycock, Ball; Hippolyte, Pigott, Neufville
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Valdimarsson; Roerslev, Collins, Mee, Henry; Onyeka, Janelt, Yarmolyuk; Mbeumo, Lewis-Potter, Wissa
We say: AFC Wimbledon 0-3 Brentford
Even though a septet of key Brentford players are still on their summer holidays, Frank can still put out a team brimming with Premier League experience, and Saturday's tie should only end with one result.
An expected raft of second-half changes has the potential to halt the Bees' momentum, but they should still run into little trouble against Wimbledon, whose 100% pre-season record should come to a swift end.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 49.74%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Brentford win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.
Ben Knapton
