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AFC Wimbledon
League One | Gameweek 19
Nov 23, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
The Cherry Red Records Stadium
Crewe Alexandra

AFC Wimbledon
3 - 2
Crewe

Rudoni (24'), Palmer (35', 44' pen.)
Heneghan (81'), Assal (90+2')
Assal (90+4')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Long (11'), Porter (89')
Murphy (44'), Sass-Davies (79'), Williams (90+4')

Preview: AFC Wimbledon vs. Crewe Alexandra - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between AFC Wimbledon and Crewe Alexandra, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Crewe Alexandra will look to climb off the foot of the League One table on Tuesday, when they travel to take on AFC Wimbledon.

A vital victory last time out saw the visitors move within just one point of 23rd-placed Doncaster Rovers and two behind 22nd-placed Fleetwood Town, while a run of three straight defeats has caused the hosts to drop to 19th, just five points better off than their opponents.


Match preview

Crewe Alexandra manager David Artell on August 24, 2021© Reuters

After a run of five games without a win in League One, AFC Wimbledon appeared to have turned a corner with a 1-0 away win over Lincoln City in October, only for Mark Robinson's side to instantly see their form take another dip.

That victory was followed by a 2-0 defeat to Wigan Athletic, before they were narrowly beaten away at newly-promoted Cambridge United.

The Dons' losing run was stretched to three league outings last time out, as an 89th-minute Marcus Harness goal saw them fall to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Portsmouth, after Ollie Palmer had put them ahead in the first half.

That saw them drop to 19th spot, now leading 21st-placed Shrewsbury by just two points, and, after narrowly avoiding the drop last season, they will be desperate to steer clear of a relegation battle this term.

Crewe Alexandra manager David Artell pictured in October 2019© Reuters

They meet a Crewe side rooted to the foot of the division but with renewed confidence after a victory last time out.

A run spanning September, October and November saw the Railwaymen pick up just four points from 10 games, failing to win any of those, and David Artell's side dropped to the bottom of the division as a result.

It is no surprise that they currently occupy the foot of the table, with only Doncaster Rovers netting fewer than their 14 goals and Accrington Stanley conceding more than the 31 goals that they have shipped in 18 league outings.

Artell's side secured a much-needed three-point haul on Saturday though, as Chris Long and Tom Lowery got on the scoresheet in a 2-0 win over Gillingham - just their second victory of the season in England's third tier.

That should revive Crewe's confidence somewhat, and, now sitting just five points adrift of safety and two points behind Fleetwood, their situation could quickly improve if they can manage a second straight win on Tuesday.

AFC Wimbledon League One form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L

AFC Wimbledon form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Crewe Alexandra League One form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Crewe Alexandra form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

AFC Wimbledon's Ollie Palmer pictured in April 2021© Reuters

AFC Wimbledon's only absentee should be defender Will Nightingale, who continues to nurse a long-term injury.

Ollie Palmer netted his second league goal of the season last time out, and he should keep his place in the front line with Jack Rudoni and Ayoub Assal operating on the flanks.

Crewe should again enter the game without Callum Ainley and Ben Knight, with the duo continuing spells on the sidelines.

Following Saturday's victory, Artell could deploy an unchanged side in their search of a second straight win, with Chris Long again leading the line after his goal.

He should be joined by Chris Porter, while the Railwaymen will stick with a back three, with Luke Offord, Michael Williams and Billy Sass-Davies shielding goalkeeper Dave Richards.

AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tsanev; Osew, Heneghan, Csoka, Guinness-Walker; Woodyard, Hartigan; Assal, McCormick, Rudoni; Palmer

Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Richards; Kashket, Offord, Williams, Sass-Davies, Adebisi; Murphy, Gomes, Lowery; Porter, Long


SM words green background

We say: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Crewe Alexandra

The mood in the Crewe camp will certainly be lifted by Saturday's win, and we see them outfighting the hosts on Tuesday to earn another much-needed win.

Wimbledon will be wounded by their poor run of form, and we would not be surprised to see them fall to another league defeat given their slump in confidence.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe

AFC Wimbledon
47.6%
Draw
14.3%
Crewe Alexandra
38.1%
21
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Crewe Alexandra manager Steve Davis looks on during the pre season friendly match between Crewe Alexandra and Blackburn Rovers at The Alexandra Stadium on July 16, 2013
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale149322315830
2Walsall1382326141226
3Notts County1475222121026
4Doncaster RoversDoncaster148242016426
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe137331612424
6Chesterfield1457228151322
7Bradford CityBradford146442015522
8MK Dons146352116521
9BarrowBarrow146351511421
10Grimsby Town147071825-721
11Gillingham146261512320
12Salford City145541416-220
13AFC Wimbledon11614189919
14Newport CountyNewport146171824-619
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood134631915418
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham145271821-317
17Harrogate TownHarrogate144371119-815
18Bromley133551517-214
19Tranmere RoversTranmere13355816-814
20Accrington StanleyAccrington133461522-713
21Colchester UnitedColchester132651620-412
22Swindon TownSwindon142661520-512
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1422101228-168
24Morecambe141491225-137


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