A crucial battle for second spot in World Cup 2022 Qualifying Group I takes place in Tirana on Tuesday, as Albania play host to Poland.
Edoardo Reja's side kept their Qatar hopes alive with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Hungary last time out, while Poland swept aside San Marino with ease.
Match preview
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With Hungary having lost their golden touch since holding their own in the Euro 2020 group of death, Albania sensed an opportunity to boost their qualification bid on hostile territory, and their trip to Budapest ended up being a joyous affair.
After a goalless opening 80 minutes, Chelsea starlet Armando Broja - who had been on the pitch for all of 14 minutes - struck the game's only goal to propel Albania to a third consecutive win in World Cup Qualifying, and lightning struck twice for the 20-year-old following his 87th-minute strike in a 1-0 win over Hungary last month.
With a 5-0 drubbing of San Marino sandwiched in between those two 1-0 triumphs, Albania have cemented their position in second spot in Group I with 15 points from a possible 21, but upcoming opponents Poland are only one point behind and breathing down their necks.
Incredibly, Albania have kept clean sheets in each of their five group victories so far - with renowned Serie A names providing a resilient rearguard for their country - and a spot in the second round will be theirs if they can maintain this hot streak.
However, Albania's penultimate game in Group I is their toughest assignment - a trip to Wembley to face runaway leaders England - and Poland need no added motivation to boost their own chances of a top-two finish this week.
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Poland's home clash against San Marino - the world's worst-ranked nation - was a foregone conclusion before the first ball was kicked on Saturday, as Paulo Sousa's side cruised to a 5-0 success at the PGE Narodowy.
Karol Swiderski's header and an own goal from Cristian Brolli put Poland 2-0 up before the break, while further strikes from Tomasz Kedziora and substitutes Adam Buksa and Krzysztof Piatek saw Poland record an emphatic win to keep the pressure on Albania.
With Hungary now surely out of the race for a second-placed finish, Poland are Albania's only realistic challengers for a spot in the second round, with Sousa's side only one point behind after setbacks against England and Hungary.
Despite England's standing at the top of the rankings, Poland's tally of 24 goals is the highest in the group - not all that surprising with Robert Lewandowski spearheading the charge - while Denmark (26) are the only European side to notch up more goals in Qualifying.
Four of Poland's 24 strikes came in a resounding 4-1 victory over Albania only last month, and that result marked the visitors' sixth win on the trot against the Red and Blacks, who have never beaten their upcoming opponents in nine previous attempts.
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Team News
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Albania and Atalanta BC defender Berat Djimsiti suffered a fractured forearm in Saturday's win over Hungary and is now reported to be facing a month out of action, with Frederic Veseli ready to deputise this week.
Endri Cekici picked up his second booking of Qualifying last time out and will play no part in this fixture either, so his spot could be filled by Nedim Bajrami in a slight change of shape for the hosts.
Broja is certainly pushing for inclusion from the off after repeating his heroics against Hungary, and the 20-year-old may finally get his opportunity here after finding the net in three World Cup Qualifying matches on the bounce.
Meanwhile, it was an emotional night for Lukasz Fabianski on Saturday, with the 36-year-old bidding an emotional farewell as he was substituted in the 57th minute of his 57th and final appearance for Poland.
Monaco's Radoslaw Majecki came on for his debut in place of Fabianski but will cede his place to Wojciech Szczesny here, while Jan Bednarek and Kamil Glik both ought to return to the back three.
Karol Linetty is suspended and could find his spot filled by Jakub Moder, while 17-year-old Kacper Kozlowski - who assisted Piatek's late goal at the weekend - should drop out for the returning Piotr Zielinski.
Albania possible starting lineup:
Berisha; Kumbulla, Veseli, Ismajli; Hysaj, Gjasula, Bare, Trashi; Bajrami; Broja, Cikalleshi
Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Glik, Bednarek, Dawidowicz; Bereszynski, Klich, Moder, Jozwiak; Zielinski; Piatek, Lewandowski
We say: Albania 1-2 Poland
This may appear to be a routine win for Poland at first glance, but Albania continue to defy expectation in World Cup Qualifying and are not to be taken lightly.
However, Poland's 4-1 thrashing of the Red and Blacks last month should serve them well, and Sousa could afford to rest some big names at the weekend, so we expect the visitors to gain the upper hand in the battle for second spot with a narrow win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albania win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Poland had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albania win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.79%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
