Only goal difference separates Altay (11th) and Adana Demirspor (10th) ahead of their Turkish Super Lig clash on Sunday.
The two clubs were promoted from the second tier last season, Adana Demirspor winning the title and Altay triumphing in the playoffs.
Match preview
Altay made an impressive start to their first top-flight campaign in nearly two decades, winning five of their first seven matches to find themselves one point off top spot.
However, they are now winless in their last five games, losing four of those, falling back into mid-table in the process.
Mustafa Denizli's side headed into the international break with a 1-0 defeat to Antalyaspor, conceding just after half-time.
Only four teams have let in more goals in the Super Lig this season than the Izmir outfit, who have not kept a clean sheet since the opening weekend of the campaign.
Altay won both games against Adana Demirspor last season and are unbeaten in their last six matches against the Blue Lightnings.
Adana Demirspor begun the campaign in contrasting fashion to Altay and promotion-winning boss Samet Aybaba resigned after failing to win in the first three games.
He was replaced by former AC Milan boss Vincenzo Montella, who has won half of his 10 games in charge – including one cup tie.
Yunus Akgun's second-half goal proved decisive as the Blue Lightnings beat Hatayspor 1-0 before the international break, which was their first victory in four matches.
Adana Demirspor have won just one of their six away matches this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road.
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Team News
Altay continue to be without injured duo Mohammad Naderi at left-back and Martin Rodriguez on the wing.
Khaly Thiam has received a yellow card in each of his last three games, meaning that he is one booking away from incurring a one-match suspension; Cebrail Karayel is also on the brink of a ban.
Adana Demirspor will have Younes Belhanda available again after the midfielder missed the last two games through injury.
Lucas Castro's injury is more long term however and he will be absent again at the Bornova Aziz Kocaoglu Stadium.
Mario Balotelli and Britt Assombalonga are battling for the central striker role, but there is a chance that the latter could play out wide.
Altay possible starting lineup:
Lis; Karayel, Thiam, Ozturk, Ozkaya; Aka, Poko; Kappel, Pinares, Celenk; Bamba
Adana Demirspor possible starting lineup:
Muric; Svensson, Akaydin, Deli, Rassoul; Kurt, Stambouli; Akgun, Vargas, Akintola; Balotelli
We say: Altay 1-2 Adana Demirspor
As the league table suggests, there is very little to choose between these two teams so a tight encounter should be in store. We are going for a narrow away win based on the quality in Adana Demirspor's squad and Altay's poor form.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Altay win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Adana Demirspor had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Altay win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Adana Demirspor win was 0-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
