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Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 14, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero
Athletico Paranaense

America
0 - 1
Athletico PR


Urena (13')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Nikao (73' pen.)
Cittadini (9'), Ivaldo (46'), Marcinho (57')

Preview: America de Cali vs. Athletico Paranaense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between America de Cali and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

America de Cali and Athletico Paranaense meet at Estadio Hernan Ramirez Villegas on Tuesday for the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana last-16 tie.

The Brazilian visitors finished top of their group to advance, while Cali dropped into the second-tier competition after being eliminated from the Copa Libertadores.


Match preview

Athletico Paranaense's Richard celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 30, 2021© Reuters

Tuesday's clash will be the first time that Cali have been in competitive action since May as the Categoria Primera A season takes a pause between its first and second stage.

The Red Devils finished eighth in the Torneo Apertura standings, seeing them narrowly scrape into the knockout phase.

However, they lost on aggregate to Millonarios in the quarter-finals, a result that saw a change in the dugout as Juan Carlos Osorio was brought on board.

First up for Osorio is this big clash with Paranaense, who have played 14 times since their opponents' last outing.

The Hurricane have won eight and lost just two of those 14 matches, highlighting the size of the challenge America de Cali face in midweek.

Indeed, Athletico are fourth in the Brasileiro standings after drawing 2-2 with erstwhile leaders Bragantino at the weekend.

Antonio Oliveira's side have experience of winning the Sudamericana, too, having lifted the trophy in 2018.

America de Cali have never prevailed on the continental stage, meanwhile, though they have finished as Libertadores runners-up on four occasions, most recently in 1996.

America de Cali form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L

Athletico Paranaense Copa Sudamericana form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Athletico Paranaense's Vitinho celebrates scoring their third goal on May 28, 2021© Reuters

Paranaense will be without Santos and Abner Vinicius as they are away on Olympics duty with Brazil for the next month or so.

Lucas Halter is also expected to miss out for the visitors through injury.

As for the home side, they have added seven new faces to their squad, the most recent of which being Mauricio Gomez.

Osorio is expected to include two new signings - Jorge Segura and Elvis Mosquera - in his first starting lineup as Cali boss.

A 4-3-1-2 formation is likely, which would see Joao Rodriguez playing just off Jeison Lucumi and Adrian Ramos.

America de Cali possible starting lineup:
Graterol; Arrieta, Segura, Torres, Mosquera; Urena, Paz, Moreno; Rodriguez; Lucumi, Ramos

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Ivaldo, Heleno, Nicolas; Richard, Christian; Nikao, Terans, Vitinho; Babi


SM words green background

We say: America de Cali 0-2 Athletico Paranaense

Paranaense eased through the group stage with five wins from their six group matches and have been in great form domestically, too.

The 2018 Sudamericana champions should prove too strong against an America de Cali side perhaps rusty after a more than two-month break between matches.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 44.22%. A win for America de Cali had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.94%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest America de Cali win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: America vs Athletico PR

America de Cali
11.8%
Draw
17.6%
Athletico Paranaense
70.6%
17
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Colombia's forward Jeison Lucumi celebrates his goal against Chile during the South American U-20 football match at Domingo Burgueno stadium in Maldonado, 130 km east of Montevideo, on January 19, 2015
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