Argentina and Ecuador square off in Goiania on Sunday in the quarter-finals of the Copa America, with a place in the final four up for grabs.
Argentina topped their group to reach the knockout stage, and they take on an Ecuador side who confirmed their fourth-placed finish in Group B with an impressive draw against Brazil.
Match preview
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As expected, Argentina cruised through the Copa America group stage in relatively comfortable fashion, picking up 10 points from their four games.
They did have a shaky start though, drawing 1-1 with Chile as Eduardo Vargas pounced on the rebound from a saved penalty to level the game after Lionel Messi had put La Albiceleste ahead with a free kick in the first half.
Lionel Scaloni's men quickly bounced back and built a winning run, first defeating Uruguay 1-0 thanks to an early Guido Rodriguez goal.
They then followed that up with another 1-0 win, as Alejandro Gomez fired them to a victory over Paraguay with a goal in the 10th minute.
In their final group game, La Albiceleste thrashed Bolivia 4-1 as captain Messi hit a brace alongside goals from Gomez and Lautaro Martinez.
Having grown into the tournament so far, Scaloni's men will look to continue their campaign with a win over Ecuador to book their spot in the final four, given the expectations on Argentina to qualify.
Their opponents narrowly secured qualification to the final eight, having pipped Venezuela to fourth spot in Group B.
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Ecuador's group campaign started with a 1-0 defeat to Colombia, as Edwin Cardona hit the winning goal before half time, but they would bounce back with three consecutive draws to seal a top-four finish.
Firstly, they looked set to defeat Venezuela 2-1 thanks to goals from Ayrton Preciado and Gonzalo Plata, but Ronald Hernandez hit a 91st-minute equaliser to force La Tricolor to share thee points.
They were again held to a draw in their next game, as they led 2-0 against Peru at half time thanks to a Renato Tapia own goal and a Preciado finish, only for Gianluca Lapadula and Andre Carrillo to net goals early in the second half to see the game finish 2-2.
Finally, they picked up a much more impressive point, drawing with pre-tournament favourites Brazil as Angel Mena levelled the game in the 53rd minute after Eder Militao's headed opener for the Selecao, who had won all three of their group games up to that point.
Despite failing to win any of their four Copa America games so far, Ecuador will be on a high having made it to the final eight, and they will be desperate to cause an upset on Sunday to reach the semi-finals.
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Team News
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Argentina will be led by talisman Lionel Messi, who has found the net three times and recorded two assists in four Copa America games, taking his tally to 75 international goals.
He should support frontman Sergio Aguero, who has led the line for the last two matches.
Alejandro Gomez and Lautaro Martinez could make up the rest of the front line, having both scored in the win over Bolivia.
Further back, Lisandro Martinez will be a key man in the back line after an eye-catching performance in that win, while Scaloni may also call on the experience of Nicolas Otamendi and bring him in at the heart of the back four.
Enner Valencia should continue to lead the Ecuador line, having hit 31 goals in 60 appearances for his nation.
He is yet to score in the tournament though, while Ayrton Preciado has netted two of their five goals and will continue to be a key man going forward.
Behind them, Jhegson Mendez and Brighton & Hove Albion prospect Moises Caicedo form an impressive midfield pairing, shielding the back four while also offering plenty to the attack.
Argentina possible starting lineup:
E Martinez; Molina, Lisandro Martinez, Otamendi, Acuna; Paredes, Lo Celso; Lautaro Martinez, Messi, Gomez; Aguero
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Galindez; Angelo Preciado, Hincapie, Arboleda, Estupinan; Franco, Mendez, Caicedo, Palacios; Ayrton Preciado, Valencia
We say: Argentina 2-0 Ecuador
While Ecuador proved themselves to be a resilient outfit against a strong Brazil side last time out, we see Argentina having too much for La Tricolor on Sunday, given the importance of a quarter-final tie.
La Albiceleste's abundance of attacking options could overwhelm their opponents' defensive line, especially if Messi keeps his strong run of form going.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 54.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.75%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
Argentina
Canada
Chile
Peru
Venezuela
Ecuador
Mexico
Jamaica
Uruguay
Panama
USA
Bolivia
Colombia
Brazil
Costa Rica
Paraguay
