Armenia will be looking to maintain their perfect start to World Cup 2022 qualifying when they welcome Romania to the Republican Stadium on Wednesday evening.
Joaquin Caparros's side have defeated Liechtenstein and Iceland in their opening two Group J matches, while Romania have three points from a possible six.
Match preview
© Reuters
Not only have Armenia won their first two games, they have also kept a clean sheet in both to match Group J pacesetters - and four-time world champions - Germany stride for stride.
It took a late Noah Frommelt own goal for the side ranked 99th in the FIFA rankings to overcome Liechtenstein, before seeing off Iceland 2-0 in an impressive result on Sunday.
Tigran Barseghyan and Khoren Bayramyan were on target in Yerevan to put Armenia in a strong position in what is likely to be a tight battle for second place behind Germany.
Caparros's men are now unbeaten in seven matches, winning five of those en route to finishing top of their UEFA Nations League group at the end of last year.
The target now will be to qualify for a first major tournament as an independent nation, something they can move a step closer to achieving with victory against Romania.
© Reuters
Romania are three points behind after following up a 3-2 win over North Macedonia - secured through a late Ianis Hagi goal - with a narrow 1-0 loss to Germany at the weekend.
Germany dominated possession and the shot count, but they could not add to Serge Gnabry's 16th-minute strike and Romania had a couple of chances to snatch a point late on.
Mirel Radoi will not be too downbeat heading into this huge clash with Armenia, however, even if that loss did bring an end to his side's four-game unbeaten streak.
Romania have qualified for the World Cup on six previous occasions, though they have not competed at the global event since 1998 and a defeat here would be a massive blow.
The sides have met on five previous occasions, with Romania winning four of those and drawing the other. The most recent encounter finished 1-0 in their favour three years ago.
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Romania made a couple of changes to their backline for the game with Germany, while Hagi and Valentin Mihaila came in for Dennis Man and Florinel Coman in attack.
Radoi could revert back to the side that started against Romania, with this game taking priority over the Germany one.
George Puscas did well as a late substitute last time out and is pushing for inclusion up top, though Claudiu Keseru - who had Romania's other chance - is unlikely to make way.
As for the home side, Bayramyan dropped to the bench against Iceland but scored as a second-half substitute, which should see him recalled.
Norberto Briasco and Sargis Adamyan are the preferred pairing up top and are expected to retain their places for the visit of Romania.
Star man Henrikh Mkhitaryan is not included in the squad after sustaining an injury for club side Roma earlier this month.
Armenia possible starting lineup:
Yurchenko; Hambardzumyan, Haroyan, Calisir, Hovhannisyan; Barseghyan, Udo, Grigoryan, Bayramyan; Adamyan, Briasco
Romania possible starting lineup:
Nita; Popescu, Chiriches, Tosca, Camora; Stanciu, Marin; Hagi, Tanase, Mihaila; Keseru
We say: Armenia 1-1 Romania
Armenia have made a perfect start to their qualifying campaign and are unbeaten in seven matches.
Sunday's loss to Germany aside - a game in which Romania could have snatched a late point - the visitors have also been in good form.
That suggests this should be a tight match in Yerevan and we are backing this one to finish level.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Armenia had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Armenia win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.