The weekend's Bundesliga action gets underway on Friday evening as Augsburg travel to the SchucoArena for a relegation six-pointer against Arminia Bielefeld.
The visitors are one place and two points behind their hosts, with both sides in mixed form in recent weeks as the German top flight heads towards its final quarter.
Match preview
© Reuters
After having boosted their survival hopes by seeing off European hopefuls Union Berlin 1-0 the previous weekend, Arminia Bielefeld returned to losing ways on Saturday.
A trip to high-flying Bayer Leverkusen was always likely to be a challenge, but the visitors could perhaps draw optimism from their opponents' painful loss to Mainz 05 a few days earlier.
If anything, that seemed to inspire Die Werkself, however, who comfortably dispatched Bielefeld 3-0 thanks to a goal on the half-hour mark from Lucas Alario and a second-half brace from Moussa Diaby.
When Frank Kramer's side concede, they tend to lose - or certainly do not win - with clean sheets being recorded in each of their five Bundesliga victories this campaign.
Therefore, they will have to be at their organised best against a side who could jump above them - and potentially send them back into the danger zone - with a victory.
© Reuters
In addition to the obvious motivation of a relegation six-pointer, Augsburg will also likely come into the game with their tails up after an impressive result last time out.
Little was expected of Markus Weinzierl's side as they hosted the mighty Borussia Dortmund on the back of a disappointing run that had seen them win just once in their previous eight matches either side of the winter break.
Whilst that statistic extended to one in nine matches, a 1-1 draw was an excellent result and the manner in which they obtained it will also have been satisfying.
Augsburg's loyal fans may have feared the worst when Thorgan Hazard fired BVB into the lead after 35 minutes, but Die Fuggerstadter kept the floodgates firmly closed and then grabbed a late equaliser via the head of Noah Sarenren Bazee.
That result lifted them out of the relegation playoff spot - albeit only on goal difference - and will have filled them with confidence ahead of a crucial trip to North Rhine-Westphalia.
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Kramer has very few issues to deal with overall in terms of team selection, with no confirmed injuries and just a couple of potential absences.
Manuel Prietl remains a doubt for Bielefeld through illness, whilst Sebastian Vasiliadis's availability is also a question mark with a foot issue.
Augsburg must do without Robert Gumny and Tobias Strobl - Gumny has an ankle issue, whilst Strobl remains out for the season due to a serious knee injury.
Andre Hahn is cleared to return, having served his suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards, but the visitors will now be without Niklas Dorsch as he serves a ban.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Ramos, Nilsson, Laursen; Kunze, Schopf; Wimmer, Castro, Okugawa; Serra
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Oxford, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai; Caligiuri, Maier, Gruezo, Pedersen; Gregoritsch; Hahn, Vargas
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Augsburg
Augsburg have one of the leakier defences in the division but are also coming into the match on a high after their impressive draw with Dortmund. With a lot on the line, the match could start off cagey but one goal could lead to a few and we are backing a high-scoring draw as the final result.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
