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Attendance: 21,048
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Premier League | Gameweek 25
Feb 2, 2020 at 2pm UK
 
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Preview: Burnley vs. Arsenal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole provides team news, predicted lineups and a full preview of Sunday's Premier League fixture between Burnley and Arsenal.

Burnley and Arsenal meet at Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon with the two teams locked on the same points in the Premier League standings.

However, as a result of Burnley's inferior goal difference, as many as three places separate the clubs, with Arsenal sitting in 10th spot and the Clarets down in 13th position.


Match preview

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta pictured in January 2020© Reuters

With Arsenal failing to win a Premier League fixture since New Year's Day, it has gone unnoticed that Mikel Arteta has put together a six-match unbeaten streak in all competitions.

Despite their other two victories during that period coming against Leeds United and Bournemouth in the FA Cup, both performances suggested that Gunners fans should be excited about their future under the guidance of the Spaniard.

Nevertheless, their main objective is ensuring that they qualify for Europe next season, a target which remains within their grasp despite draws with Crystal Palace, Sheffield United and Chelsea respectively.

Arsenal sit just four points adrift of fifth-placed Manchester United, while catching Chelsea in fourth should not be completely ruled out at this stage.

With Manchester City now off the schedule until the latter stages of the campaign due to their participation in the EFL Cup final, Arsenal have three successive home matches following the trip to face Burnley.

Eddie Nketiah celebrates scoring his side's second with Arsenal teammates on January 27, 2020© Reuters

While success over Newcastle United, Everton and West Ham United is far from a certainty, the opportunity is there to generate more momentum heading into a pivotal part of the campaign.

The defensive additions of Pablo Mari and Cedric Soares should only help their cause, but Arteta will be excited about the prospect of Eddie Nketiah chipping in with goals over the coming months.

Despite his failed loan spell at Leeds, Arteta has placed faith in the 20-year-old, something which was rewarded with a goal against Bournemouth earlier this week.

Although there is little chance of the youngster being handed an extended run in the team, the striker has the credentials to give Arsenal a boost in the final third.

As for Burnley, they head into this contest having suffered a hugely disappointing defeat to Norwich City in the FA Cup fourth round last weekend.

However, Sean Dyche may feel that being eliminated from the competition could prove to be a blessing in disguise as they bid to avoid any kind of a relegation battle in the coming months.

Burnley manager Sean Dyche before the match on December 14, 2019© Reuters

Earlier in January, there were concerns that the Clarets could be sucked into the bottom three after a run of 10 defeats in 14 matches, but much of that negativity has now disappeared.

While there was natural jubilation after coming from behind to beat Leicester City at Turf Moor, ending their long wait for victory against Manchester United at Old Trafford was one of the highest points since their return to the Premier League in 2016.

With a seven-point cushion above the drop zone, Dyche will now feel that the pressure has been lifted, although there will now be a desire to break into the top 10.

Dyche is also delighted with the addition of Josh Brownhill from Bristol City, a player who has contributed five goals and two assists in the Championship this season.

Although the 24-year-old may have to bide his time for a starting role, the arrival of a fresh face in midfield should benefit the squad after the recent departure of Danny Drinkwater.

Burnley Premier League form: LLLLWW
Burnley form (all competitions): LWLWWL

Arsenal Premier League form: DLWDDD
Arsenal form (all competitions): WWDDDW


Team News

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in action for Arsenal on October 6, 2019© Reuters

Arsenal are able to call upon the services of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has sat out the last three matches due to suspension.

The Gabon international could start down the middle, with Gabriel Martinelli featuring on the left and Alexandre Lacazette only being named among the replacements.

Soares will miss out with a knee problem, while Mari is said to be a number of weeks away from his debut due to a lack of fitness.

Dyche could opt to name the same team which recorded a 2-0 triumph over Man United on January 22.

Brownhill may feature on the bench, but Johan Berg Gudmundsson is unlikely to return from a thigh injury.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Bardsley, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Hendrick, Westwood, Cork, McNeil; Rodriguez, Wood

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Luiz, Sokratis, Saka; Torreira, Xhaka; Pepe, Ozil, Martinelli, Aubameyang


Head To Head

Sunday's meeting will represent the 109th competitive clash between the two clubs, with Arsenal claiming 54 wins in comparison to 33 victories for Burnley.

However, despite enjoying plenty of success from a historical perspective, the Clarets have suffered 11 straight defeats to the Gunners, a run stretching back to 2010.

Burnley have not recorded a league victory over Arsenal since prevailing 1-0 at Highbury in 1974.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Burnley 1-2 Arsenal

While Burnley have gotten back on track in recent matches, we are predicting that Arsenal will continue to show a different side to their game at Turf Moor, grinding out three much-needed points to get them back in the hunt for the top six.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%).


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Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta pictured in January 2020
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8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
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12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
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16Everton112451017-710
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19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


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