Separated by just one point and one place in the Serie A standings, Atalanta BC and Lazio meet on Saturday afternoon at the Gewiss Stadium.
Both winners in midweek, the entertaining pair have been plagued by inconsistency, which sees them adrift of the top four ahead of the weekend's action.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having dropped points late on in their previous two outings, Atalanta were in no mood to do so again on Wednesday evening, when they met struggling Sampdoria in Genoa.
Gian Piero Gasperini's side fought back from going a goal down early on to take the lead through Duvan Zapata's 21st-minute strike, but it was only a stoppage-time howitzer from Josip Ilicic which ultimately sealed the deal for La Dea.
Amid an ongoing injury crisis, Atalanta posted their fourth win from five away fixtures in this season's Serie A, and moved fifth in the table following the first 10 rounds.
Still ahead of ailing Juventus, and just a point behind Roma, the Bergamaschi are now searching for some consistency in their pursuit of another top-four finish this term.
Gasperini celebrated his 200th game in charge of the Nerazzurri in midweek - incidentally at the Marassi, where he also coached Genoa on more than 200 occasions - but was forced to watch from an executive box due to a suspension for arguing with the officials in last weekend's draw with Udinese.
With an important pair of fixtures to tackle this week - after hosting Lazio, La Dea welcome Champions League opponents Manchester United to Bergamo - 'Gasp' will surely have to stay cool when sharing the touchline with the similarly explosive Maurizio Sarri, as he seeks to lead his side to just a second league win at home this term.
© Reuters
Locking his players inside the changing room for an hour after Lazio's calamitous 4-1 loss to Verona last week demonstrated the depth of feeling Maurizio Sarri had about such a capitulation - which came just days after beating reigning champions Inter.
Whatever words of wisdom he imparted to his squad in the bowels of the Bentegodi had the desired effect on Wednesday, though, as the Aquile were able to see off an improved Fiorentina side 1-0 in Rome.
Pedro's second-half strike - one of only two shots Lazio managed to get on target from a meagre total of five - secured the all-important three points, with the performance being labelled their "best of the season" by Sarri, despite having previously beaten Inter and arch-rivals Roma.
Perhaps still adjusting to the former Juventus coach's notorious demands, the Biancocelesti sit sixth in the standings, as their hopes of a push for the top four have been undermined by some recurring defensive deficiencies.
In midweek, Lazio finally managed to keep a clean sheet in the league at the 10th time of asking this season, but will certainly find their rearguard resolve tested to the full by Atalanta on Saturday.
Like their fellow capital club Roma, they have not travelled well this term - losing three times on the road already - so will be keen to prove their credentials by beating the Bergamaschi and leapfrogging them in the table.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Atalanta's series of defensive absences has been hampering them for over a fortnight now, but though captain Rafael Toloi, Berat Djimsiti and Merih Demiral - plus wing-backs Robin Gosens and Hans Hateboer - were all unavailable in midweek, at least the latter should be back in action on Saturday.
Gian Piero Gasperini hopes to have Demiral fit to start, so Jose Luis Palomino - who came off injured at half-time against Sampdoria - will drop out, and Marten de Roon may continue his stint as part of the back three.
The former Middlesbrough man's fellow Dutch international Teun Koopmeiners therefore deputises in the hosts' midfield - where Matteo Pessina remains out of action - while Colombian compatriots Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel continue their duel for the central striker's role.
Meanwhile, Lazio will have only Mattia Zaccagni sidelined this weekend, so Luis Alberto and Danilo Cataldi are set to vie for a start in midfield - though Lucas Leiva may come back into the side to offer more defensive nous.
Adam Marusic hopes to hold off the claims of Elseid Hysaj on the left side of the Biancocelesti back four, which has conceded 17 goals already, even in spite of their first clean sheet on Wednesday.
Maurizio Sarri will once more rely on his trusted attacking department at the Gewiss Stadium; comprising Felipe Anderson, Pedro and eight-goal top scorer Ciro Immobile.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Demiral, Lovato, De Roon; Zappacosta, Koopmeiners, Freuler, Maehle; Pasalic, Ilicic; Zapata
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Lazzari, Felipe, Acerbi, Hysaj; Lucas, Alberto, Milinkovic-Savic; Anderson, Pedro, Immobile
We say: Atalanta BC 2-2 Lazio
Though Atalanta have actually tightened up at the back so far this term - at least statistically - both they and Lazio are susceptible to counter-attacks and will find themselves caught out on occasions.
If both forward lines are at their rapier-like best, then it may end up a high-scoring draw, keeping the clubs sat alongside one another in the Serie A standings.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 17.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
