Atlanta United will play host to the Chicago Fire in their home opener from Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday.
Both teams began this Major League Soccer campaign with a draw, as Atlanta drew 0-0 with Orlando City while the Fire squandered a two-goal lead to tie New England Revolution 2-2.
Match preview
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Since their 2018 MLS Cup triumph, Atlanta have taken a few steps backwards, losing in the Eastern Conference finals in 2019 and missing the playoffs for the first time last season.
Gabriel Heinze came in to steer the ship back on course, and he will be pleased to have striker Josef Martinez back in the fold after the 2018 MLS Golden Boot winner missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL.
In his three games in charge dating back to last year, Heinze and his team are yet to concede a goal in regular-season play.
The Five Stripes will hope the return of Martinez can carry them back into the playoffs after scoring only 23 goals last season, the second-fewest in the league ahead of only FC Cincinnati.
Atlanta lost four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2020, which was rather uncharacteristic given they had not lost more than three games at home before last season.
Heading into this campaign, Chicago manager Raphael Wicky will know the importance of every game in the regular season after missing the playoffs by a single point in 2020.
The Fire got the start they wanted last week, jumping out to a two-goal lead in the first 11 minutes, but before the match was half an hour old, that lead had evaporated.
Conceding twice in 13 minutes should come as a warning to Chicago that they cannot afford a lapse in concentration in this league for even a moment.
However, there are many positives that Wicky can take away from the first match, and if their opener is any indication, we could see a lot more offence from this side in 2021.
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Team News
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Central midfielder Mo Adams missed the opening game for the Five Stripes with a groin strain but could be ready to return.
Striker Josef Martinez is keen to start scoring again as he needs 10 goals to hit 100 all-time for the Five Stripes, while winger Ezequiel Barco would like to catch Martinez for all-time team assists as he trails the Venezuelan by one in that department.
Winger Stanislav Ivanov had knee surgery in late March and will miss the next few months; Fabian Herbers has a torn collateral ligament and will be out this weekend, Elliot Collier has an ankle injury, and centre-back Carlos Teran will likely miss out with a hamstring problem.
Their leading goalscorer last season Robert Beric got some much-needed help offensively last week as Luka Stojanovic scored and created several high-quality chances for his side.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Bello, Walkes, Robinson, Lennon; Ibarra, Sosa, Barco; Moreno, Martinez, Damm
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Sekulic, Kappelhof, Calvo, Bornstein; Stojanovic, Gimenez, Frankowski, Medran, Aliseda; Beric
We say: Atlanta United 2-1 Chicago Fire
Atlanta are unbeaten in three previous meetings against the Fire from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They have won their last three home openers, they have their star striker back in the fold, and this side will be keen to prove last season was a mere speedbump in what has been a reasonably successful time in MLS.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 48.77%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
