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[monks data]
Atlanta United
Major League Soccer | Gameweek 40
Oct 21, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
New York City

Atlanta
1 - 1
NY City

Moreno (17')
Franco (60'), Robinson (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Thorarinsson (90')
Moralez (24'), Sands (90+4')

Preview: Atlanta United vs. New York City FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In search of a fifth consecutive home victory, Atlanta United welcome New York City FC to the Mercedes-Benz stadium on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the away side will be aiming to put an end to a five-game winless run with their last triumph coming over a month ago.


Match preview

Atlanta United FC forward Josef Martinez (7) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against DC United at Audi Field on August 24, 2021© Reuters

Atlanta United picked up their first away win since August by beating Toronto FC 2-0 at the BMO Field on Sunday.

Goals in either half from forwards Luiz Araujo and Marcelino Moreno secured all three points for Gonzalo Pineda's men.

The Five Stripes have moved up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings and currently possess a two-point cushion on teams outside the playoff places.

Awaiting them next is an opportunity to avoid a third straight defeat against an opposing side who would move ahead on the log should they manage to claim all three points.

With the regular season now in its final knockings, Thursday's hosts have little margin for error in their quest to book a spot in the postseason this term after missing out last season.

New York City FC were left empty-handed in the Hudson River Derby versus New York Red Bulls on Sunday, which ended 1-0 at the Red Bull Arena.

Christian Casseres opened the scoring in the third minute and that was enough to condemn Ronny Deila's men to an 11th league loss of the campaign.

Despite amassing only two points from their last five outings, the Pigeons sit just one point outside the last playoff place ahead of the regular season's final stretch.

Having picked up just 13 of their 40 points on the road, Thursday's visitors will need to improve their fortunes away from home to avoid being left behind by fellow playoff hopefuls.

Atlanta United Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

New York City FC Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Atlanta United midfielder Marcelino Moreno (10) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Columbus Crew in the second half at Lower.com Stadium on August 7, 2021© Reuters

Atlanta's Ezequiel Barco was given his marching orders last time out, and the Argentine midfielder is suspended for this one.

The home side will also be without the services of 25-year-old Emerson Hyndman who is yet to feature this term due to a knee injury.

Ismael Tajouri grabbed the winning goal for the away side in the last meeting between Thursday's opponents and will be looking to deliver the goods once more.

Deila has now seen his side fail to score in four straight games, and we expect him to make some alterations to his attack with the likes of Santiago Rodriguez dropping to the bench from the last XI.

Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Walkes, Franco, Robinson; Bello, Sosa, Rossetto, Lennon, Ibarra; Moreno, Martinez

New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Callens, Sands, Chanot; Thorarinsson, Moralez, Parks, Medina, Gray; Castellanos, Heber


SM words green background

We say: Atlanta United 1-1 New York City FC

Both teams have a lot to lose coming into this one, so we expect a cautious approach with neither side being too adventurous. We are also backing a share of the spoils with the sides settling for a point apiece in the end.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Atlanta vs NY City

Atlanta United
65.5%
Draw
20.0%
New York City FC
14.5%
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Atlanta United FC forward Josef Martinez (7) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against DC United at Audi Field on August 24, 2021
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami34228479493074
2Columbus Crew34199672403266
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati341851158481059
4Orlando City34157125950952
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34149114637951
6New York City FCNY City34148125449550
7New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34111495550547
8CF MontrealMontreal341110134864-1643
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144649-340
10DC United341010145270-1840
11Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia34910156255737
12Toronto34114194061-2137
13Nashville SCNashville3499163854-1636
14New England RevolutionNew England3494213774-3731
15Chicago Fire3479184062-2230

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Los Angeles FCLos Angeles34197863432064
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy34197869501964
3Real Salt LakeSalt Lake341611765481759
4Seattle SoundersSeattle34169951351657
5Houston DynamoHouston34159104739854
6Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd34157125849952
7Colorado RapidsColorado34155146160150
8Portland TimbersPortland341211116556947
9Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver34138135249347
10Austin FCAustin34119143948-942
11Dallas34118155456-241
12St Louis City34813135063-1337
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas3487195166-1531
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes3463254178-3721


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