The New York Red Bulls will go for their first road win of the season when they head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday to face Atlanta United.
Atlanta had their five-match unbeaten run snapped on Wednesday by New York City FC in a 1-0 defeat, while the Red Bulls second-half comeback fell just short, as they lost 3-2 to the New England Revolution.
Match preview
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With nine games played for Atlanta United in the regular season, the Five Stripes have blown several opportunities that could have put them higher than their current seeding, 10th in the Eastern Conference.
They appeared unsettled by a robust New York FC side on Wednesday, who put them under duress from the very beginning, making it very difficult for Atlanta to get into the game.
If not for a spectacular outing from goalkeeper Brad Guzan, who made a season-high six saves, the 1-0 defeat against New York could have been a lot worse, as Atlanta gave up plenty of quality opportunities and were outshot 18-6 on the night.
A great performance by their keeper went to waste in midweek, and it would be fair to say that Atlanta have squandered a lot of points recently, giving up back-to-back two-goal leads versus Nashville and Philadelphia, while also squandering a 1-0 lead against lowly Inter Miami.
Those six points lost could have moved Gabriel Heinze and his Five Stripes from 10th up to fourth place in the East standings.
They may not be in a playoff position at the moment, but they have shown that they can play well against the elite squads, drawing four games against teams who are currently in a playoff position, including the Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, the Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC.
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It has taken the Red Bulls a while to learn the high pressing system of manager Gerhard Struber, but they appear to be getting the hang of it and playing much better as a result.
They had a few mental lapses against New England in the middle of the week, which caused them to go down 3-0 before putting together a valiant second-half comeback, but ultimately losing 3-2.
Even though they lost, there was a lot to like about their game, as they outshot the top-ranked team in the Eastern Conference by a 21-10 margin, and they had the same amount of possession virtually and almost the same number of passes as the Revs.
One thing that has not been a problem for this team lately has been the ability to score goals, as they have notched at least two in six fixtures, including scoring twice against the second-best defensive unit in MLS at the moment, Orlando.
The Red Bulls are at their best when they draw first blood, with their only four wins of the season coming after scoring the opening goal.
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Team News
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Atlanta striker Josef Martinez and defender Ronald Hernandez are on international duty with Venezuela at the Copa America.
Midfielder Emerson Hyndman is out with a cruciate ligament rupture, and striker Erik Lopez picked up cautions in two successive matches, meaning he will miss the game on Sunday through suspension.
The Red Bulls will hope their current top goalscorer Caden Clark can make the most of his time remaining in New York, with the 18-year-old set the join RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga at the end of this season.
Midfielder Youba Diarra is out with a muscle injury along with Aaron Long, who will not be available for some time due to an Achilles tendon rupture and midfielder Cristian Casseres is with the Venezuelan national team for the Copa America.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Bello, Franco, Robinson, Lennon; Barco, Sosa, Adams; Moreno, Torres, Damm
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Pendant, Nealis, Reyes, Duncan; Davis, Edwards, Carmona; Yearwood; Klimala, Fabio
We say: Atlanta United 1-3 New York Red Bulls
New York have scored in all but one regular-season game, while the Five Stripes have found the back of the net in all but two matches, so we should expect to see a few goals in this one.
The Red Bulls seem to be getting the hang of their new system and have never lost to Atlanta in regular season play, winning three of the four matches played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 50.94%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
