Two sides separated who are by only two points in the MLS' Eastern Conference will face each other on Saturday at Saputo Stadium when CF Montreal play host to Atlanta United.
Montreal dropped below the playoff line with its second consecutive defeat, 4-1 to the New England Revolution, while the Five Stripes are holding down the second-last playoff spot after a dramatic 1-0 win at home to Inter Miami.
Match preview
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We are getting down to the nitty-gritty in Major League Soccer, and Montreal need to pick themselves off the canvas if they want to earn a postseason berth.
On Wednesday, they were left to rue some missed opportunities in the early going versus the top team in the league, who made them pay, taking a 3-0 lead within a half hour.
Wilfried Nancy has seen his side struggle, losing back-to-back encounters for the first time since late July, and now they are in the unenviable position of having to play catch-up.
This group are not having any issues maintaining possession of late, allowing more than 50% to their opponents only once in their previous nine MLS fixtures, but they are giving away far too many quality scoring opportunities, which can be a death sentence as they discovered when you face sides like New England.
Over the next few weeks, we will see what these players are made of, as they get set to host two teams (Atlanta and the Philadelphia Union) who are each only two points ahead of them, so getting some positive results is of critical importance.
Montreal have put a strong focus throughout the year on cutting off their opponents' space in between midfield and the final third, which has made it difficult for other sides to get into dangerous areas, although the Canadian side have to be concerned with the amount of goals they have conceded lately, seven in their previous two fixtures.
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They left it late, but in the end, Atlanta claimed a big three points on Wednesday, converting a penalty kick to blank the Herons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Since the arrival of Gonzalo Pineda as manager, Atlanta have been a lot more responsible defensively, posting three clean sheets in his five matches in charge while only conceding five shots on target in those three shutout wins.
In their midweek encounter, they moved the ball around brilliantly, clicking at a pass accuracy of 89% but rarely got into dangerous areas to trouble Miami until the final 15 minutes of play.
With seven games remaining, they are in a position to make it back into the postseason, but the standings are so tight that the last thing they want to do is suffer a setback after working so hard to get out of their early season predicament.
The Five Stripes have points in four of their last five road contests, including erasing a 2-0 deficit in their previous visit to Saputo Stadium on August 4, playing to a 2-2 draw.
Atlanta have only suffered one defeat in 2021 when scoring first, having been held off the scoresheet in six of their eight losses this year.
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Team News
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Joaquin Torres scored his fourth goal of the year for Montreal on Wednesday, putting him into a tie with Djordje Mihailovic for third on the team and two behind Romell Quioto for second.
Rudy Camacho found the back of the net for the second time this year, but it was not one that he wanted as his own goal in the first half put his team down 3-0, while he and his defensive partners, Joel Waterman and Kamal Miller, struggled to contain a potent New England side.
Their leading goalscorer Mason Toye remains sidelined with a shoulder injury, Kiki Struna has a calf problem, while Ahmed Hamdi and Robert Thorkelsson are recovering from abductor issues.
Wednesday was a special night for Atlanta striker Josef Martinez, as the former MLS Golden Boot winner scored the winner from the penalty spot, becoming the fastest player in league history to fire home 100 goals, achieving the feat in only 125 club appearances, surpassing the previous mark set by former Los Angeles Galaxy forward Robbie Keane, who hit the century mark in 156 matches.
The back three of Miles Robinson, Alan Franco and Anton Walkes were terrific against Miami this week, holding them to zero shots on target as Brad Guzan picked up three clean sheets in September.
Jurgen Damm and Amar Sejdic are out with muscle injuries, Franco Ibarra has a lower-body injury, Erick Torres will not be available due to health and safety protocols and Emerson Hyndman is gone for the year with a torn ACL.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Waterman, Camacho, Miller, Brault-Guillard; Tabla, Maciel, Piette; Mihailovic; Torres, Quioto
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Robinson, Franco, Hernandez, Lennon; Moreno, Sosa, Barco, Mulraney; Conway, Martinez
We say: CF Montreal 1-1 Atlanta United
The last five contests featuring these sides have been decided by one goal or fewer, and with so much at stake for both teams down the homestretch of the regular season, finding an opening could be difficult as both teams like to build up a lot of possession before taking chances.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 45.27%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
