Atletico Madrid's Champions League last-16 hopes hang in the balance heading into their final Group A fixture away to Red Bull Salzburg.
The La Liga leaders are two points better off than their opponents heading into Wednesday's clash, meaning that anything other than defeat will see them through with Bayern Munich.
Match preview
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On the face of it, a 1-1 home draw with reigning European champions Bayern, boasting a 15-game winning run in the competition, should be considered a good result for Atletico.
However, the German giants started with an experimental XI in last week's game at the Wanda Metropolitano and barely created a chance until Thomas Muller converted a late penalty.
Joao Felix had earlier put Atleti ahead and, had his side held on for just five more minutes, this game at the Red Bull Arena would have been a dead rubber.
As it is, however, Diego Simeone's men now need to pick up a point or more in Austria to progress.
The challenge for Salzburg is also simple enough: win the match or drop into the Europa League, assuming Lokomotiv Moscow do not beat Bayern in the other Group A fixture.
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Jesse Marsch's side lost 3-2 to Atletico in the reverse fixture and were soundly beaten by Bayern home and away, either side of a 2-2 draw and 3-1 win over Lokomotiv.
Never in their Champions League history have Salzburg won successive matches, while Atletico have never drawn four in a row, which could be the case here.
The visitors head into the match on a high, having defeated Real Valladolid 2-0 at the weekend to move into top spot in La Liga, which many now consider them the favourites to win.
Salzburg are second to LASK Linz in their domestic league, meanwhile, after losing 1-0 away to Admira Wacker on Saturday - far from ideal preparation for such a huge game.
Red Bull Salzburg Champions League form: DLLLW
Red Bull Salzburg form (all competitions): DLLWWL
Atletico Madrid Champions League form: LWDDD
Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): WWDWDW
Team News
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Atletico remain without Renan Lodi, Yannick Carrasco, Sime Vrsaljko, Diego Costa and Manu Sanchez.
Striker Luis Suarez returned from a four-game absence at the weekend, however, and is expected to start here, despite his lack of impact against Valladolid.
Simeone must decide whether to go with a four-man defence or five, which may determine whether or not Vitolo starts the match.
As for the hosts, Patson Daka is available for selection once again but faces a challenge in dislodging Mergim Berisha.
Berisha has netted four goals in four Champions League starts for Salzburg this season, including a brace against Lokomotiv Moscow on matchday five.
Youba Diarra, Antoine Bernede and Ousmane Diakite have all been ruled out of the contest.
Red Bull Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Stankovic; Kristensen, Ramalho, Wober; Ulmer; Mwepu, Camara, Junuzovic, Szoboszlai; Koita, Berisha
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso; Trippier, Llorente, Koke, Saul, Vitolo; Felix, Suarez
We say: Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico have struggled to carry their domestic form onto the continent this term and the pressure is now on heading into this final group match.
Simeone's side know that a draw will see them through and, with their last three Group A outings finishing level, we can see this one going the same way.
Top betting tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.79%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-0 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
