Atletico Madrid will take on Rayo Majadahonda in the Copa del Rey on Thursday evening, with a spot in the last-16 stage of the competition on offer for both teams.
The reigning Spanish champions will be playing their first match in this season's tournament, but Rayo have won twice to reach the round of 32, overcoming Eldense and Malaga, both by a 1-0 scoreline.
Match preview
Rayo, who play their league football in Spain's third tier, have reached the last-32 stage of the Copa del Rey for the first time in their history but will need to pull off a shock result to advance any further.
Majariegos, as mentioned, have already played twice in this season's competition, beating Eldense 1-0 in the first round on December 2 before overcoming Malaga by the same scoreline in the second round on December 14.
Abel Gomez's side have not actually been in league action since losing 3-2 to Racing Santander on December 11, with the result leaving them in sixth position in their domestic table, boasting 27 points from 16 matches.
Rayo, who have never played La Liga football, will have taken a lot of heart from their 1-0 win over Malaga in the previous round, but they will now be taking on the reigning Spanish champions.
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Atletico managed to end a four-game losing run in La Liga on Sunday when they recorded a 2-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, with Angel Correa scoring a double for the capital giants.
Diego Simeone's side are still seriously off the pace when it comes to the top of the division, though, with 14 points separating them from current leaders Real Madrid, so it is incredibly unlikely that the club will be unable to retain the title that they won last season.
Atletico did progress in the Champions League, though, with Manchester United set to be their opponents in the round of 16, while the Madrid giants are among the favourites for this competition despite the fact that they have not lifted this particular trophy since 2013.
The Red and Whites are 10-time winners of the Copa del Rey, but they have not made it past the round of 16 since 2017-18 and were eliminated by Cornella in the early rounds of last season.
The fact that the La Liga title is already gone could see Simeone take this competition more seriously, but this match comes just three days before a huge league contest away to Villarreal.
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Team News
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Rayo have not been in action since their win over Malaga in the last round of the competition, and with no fresh injuries to report, it would not be a surprise to see the same XI sent onto the field.
Ruben Sanchez led the line last time out and scored the winner, so the 27-year-old should retain his spot in the final third of the field, while Mario Garcia and Javi Gomez are likely to feature in the starting side.
As for Atletico, there will be wholesale changes from the side that started against Rayo Vallecano in the league at the weekend, with Simeone expected to hand squad players and youngsters opportunities to impress.
The capital giants still have first-team absentees, with Antoine Griezmann, Hector Herrera, Joao Felix, Koke, Marcos Llorente and Stefan Savic unavailable for selection.
Matheus Cunha and Felipe both came off the bench against Rayo Vallecano and are likely to be handed spots in the XI, while Javier Serrano and Carlos Martin could be given opportunities in midfield.
There will also be a change between the sticks, with Frenchman Benjamin Lecomte replacing Jan Oblak, while the manager's son, Giuliano Simeone, should also be in the squad.
Rayo Majadahonda possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; I Lopez, Bernal, Casado, Osei; M Garcia, Tassembedo; J Gomez, Susaeta, Albiach; Sanchez
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Lecomte; Vrsaljko, Felipe, Hermoso, Lodi; Serrano, Martin, Kondogbia; Cunha, Correa, Carrasco
We say: Rayo Majadahonda 0-2 Atletico Madrid
Simeone will ring the changes for this match, with a number of youngsters set to be in the squad, so Rayo will not be taking on a full-strength Atletico, but it is still very difficult to imagine anything other than a routine victory for the visitors, who should have too much quality on the night.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Rayo Majadahonda had a probability of 18.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.81%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Rayo Majadahonda win it was 1-0 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
