Less than a week after Athletico Paranaense humiliated the defending league champions in their own backyard in the Copa do Brasil, Flamengo have an opportunity to repay the favour on Tuesday when they face Furacao in a Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A matchup from Arena da Baixada.
Athletico are winless in five consecutive league fixtures and only four points above the relegation line, while Mengao moved a little bit closer to league leaders Atletico Mineiro, beating them 1-0 on Saturday.
Match preview
© Reuters
They have certainly held their own in the domestic and continental tournaments this year, but it has been a whole other story for El Paranaense in Serie A.
On Saturday, Alberto Valentim saw his side fail to score for a third successive league match, as they are playing with fire, currently 13th in the standings, but only a point ahead of Sao Paulo, Bahia and Ceara.
This team have not allowed a lot of shots on target lately, but they have let their opponents get into good shooting positions, as Santos scored on one of their two targeted efforts this past weekend, while Fluminense had only two shots on goal themselves earlier in October but still beat Paranaense thanks to an own goal from Jose Ivaldo.
Their form in cup ties suggests that they are a side who are capable of putting together a solid run of results against some formidable opponents, losing only two total fixtures in the Copa do Brasil and Copa Sudamericana combined, two competitions in which they have made it to the final.
In the second leg of their Copa do Brasil semi-final tie with Flamengo, El Paranaense benefited from VAR as they took the lead in the opening 10 minutes with a penalty kick, while Urubu had a penalty decision reversed which could have levelled the match, and the team from Curitiba weathered a second-half storm but came away victorious, winning 3-0 and 5-2 on aggregate at the famous Maracana.
Paranaense have been a mainstay in the Brasileiro Serie A, currently in their seventh successive season in the top flight, but they are now on pace to finish in their lowest position since being promoted in 2012, with only 10 wins and 14 defeats in 28 games.
© Reuters
Flamengo boosted their chances of capturing a third successive domestic league title, thanks to a 1-0 win over Galo in a match where they only had 37% of the possession.
If they can somehow erase the 10-point gap separating themselves from Atletico, they would become the first Brazilian club to win this competition on three consecutive occasions since Sao Paulo did it from 2006 to 2008.
While having two games in hand on the leaders is a nice luxury, it will only be helpful if they can take care of business, and Flamengo have not won consistently all year, failing to capture more than two successive league matches since August.
Even though many of these players won this competition in 2019 and 2020, their new manager Renato Gaucho will be eager to get his hands on this famous trophy once again, after helping Flamengo to the title during his playing days in 1987.
This is the richest club in all of Brazil, and their investments have paid off handsomely in recent years, having never finished a season without a trophy since 2018, and since 2019 they have captured at least two competitions each season.
Flamengo are a dangerous side with a variety of weapons, who are highly aggressive, and they can afford to take a few more risks going forward as they have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league (24) while also scoring the most (48).
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Nikao had a pair of goals in the upset victory by El Paranaense in the Copa do Brasil, but he has not scored in a league fixture since July 10.
Without the addition of David Terans, Athletico could be in real danger of relegation as the Uruguayan has helped rescue this team from sticky situations numerous times, currently tied for third in the league in assists with seven and leading the team in goals with five, which is one more than Renato Kayzer.
The one injury concern will be Matheus Babi, who is unlikely to see the field again this year after undergoing cruciate ligament surgery.
Michael moved into a tie with Pedro for second in team scoring with his seventh of the campaign, and the only goal in their victory this past weekend, while Bruno Henrique collected his second assist of the domestic season.
Gaucho made three changes to their starting 11 on Saturday from the side who started in their defeat to El Paranaense as Gustavo Henrique and Ramon replaced Rodrigo Caio and Filipe Luis on the backline and Michael started in an attacking midfield role instead of Diego.
Vitinho is tied with Hulk, Edenilson, and his Flamengo teammate Giorgian De Arrascaeta for assists in the league with six.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Azevedo, Ze Ivaldo, Heleno, Hernandez; Nikao, Christian, Cittadini; Terans, Kayzer, Rocha
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, G. Henrique, Pereira, Rodinei; Arao, Pereira; Vitinho, B. Henrique, Kenedy; Gabriel
We say: Athletico Paranaense 0-3 Flamengo
Turnabout is fair play, and Mengao will be eager to show Furacao that the kind of result that they achieved against them in the Copa do Brasil will not happen again.
Far too often in this domestic campaign El Paranaense have allowed teams to get into some good scoring positions, and you cannot expect to do that against the two-time Brazilian champions too often and come out unscathed, especially with that cup defeat still fresh in the memory of the Flamengo players.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 50.77%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 24.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-2 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 1-0 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.