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Athletico Paranaense
Brasileiro | Gameweek 22
Sep 26, 2021 at 10.15pm UK
Arena da Baixada
Gremio

Athletico PR
4 - 2
Gremio

Rocha (31', 45+1'), Kayzer (55', 61')
Ivaldo (67')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Thiago (59'), Vanderson (84')
Ruan (65'), Borja (66'), Costa (90+1'), Rafinha (90+3'), Sarara (90+4')

Preview: Athletico Paranaense vs. Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Athletico Paranaense and Gremio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Gremio will continue their bid to climb out of the bottom four of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table on Sunday, when they travel to take on Athletico Paranaense.

The Imortal Tricolor recorded an eye-catching win over Flamengo to move within a point of safety last time out, while their hosts won their Copa Sudamericana semi-final first leg on Friday after returning to winning ways in the league against Juventude.


Match preview

Gremio coach Luis Felipe Scolari pictured on July 17, 2021© Reuters

After a strong start to the campaign, Athletico Paranaense had to endure a particularly difficult run of form in the Brazilian top flight recently, collecting just one point from seven games over the course of August and the beginning of September.

They now head into Sunday's meeting with Gremio in a run of three victories in all competitions though, as they firstly defeated Santos in the Copa do Brasil before making a return to winning ways in the league.

Antonio Oliveira's side met Juventude in their most recent Brasileiro outing, and goals from Guilherme Bissoli and Renato Kayzer saw them overturn a deficit to come away with a vital 2-1 victory, moving back into the top half as a result.

They then built on that in continental action last time out, as an early David Terans opener and a Pedro Rocha goal saw them pick up a 2-1 win in the away leg of their Copa Sudamericana semi-final tie with Uruguayan side Penarol.

With half an eye on next week's second leg, El Paranaense will be keen to add another victory and continue building momentum, but they face a tough test against a Gremio side filled with renewed confidence.

Athletico Paranaense's Richard celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 30, 2021© Reuters

After 10 games of the league season, Gremio sat in the relegation zone with just six points, but the appointment of former Brazil manager Luiz Felipe Scolari has brought about a major change of fortunes for the Imortal Tricolor.

They now come into the game with four wins from their last five league outings, having won just two of the first 14 of the season, as they firstly defeated Cuiaba 1-0 on their travels and Bahia 2-0 on home turf.

After a disappointing defeat to Corinthians, Scolari's side bounced back by convincingly defeating Ceara 2-0, before rebounding from a cup defeat to high-flying Flamengo with an eye-catching league victory over the same opponents.

Gremio took on the third-placed side away from home on Monday, and Miguel Borja hit the only goal of the game on the stroke of half time as they left with a crucial win.

That saw them move up to 18th spot, with the chance to leapfrog Juventude, America Mineiro and Bahia and climb out of the drop zone if they win on Sunday and other results go their way.

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Gremio Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Gremio form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Athletico Paranaense made several changes for the Copa Sudamericana game, and given the quick turnaround, some of Friday's stars may drop back out of the side to prepare for the second leg.

Nikao, David Terans and Guilherme Bissoli formed the front three in both of the games, and Oliveira may choose to rotate his attacking options to ensure freshness, with Renato Kayzer and Pedro Rocha obvious candidates to come into the starting side.

Ze Ivaldo, Lucas Fasson and Nicolas could reform the back three after they started in the league win over Juventude.

Gremio should stick with a very similar side to the one that defeated Flamengo last time out, following a particularly impressive display.

Miguel Borja will again lead the line, after he took his tally to four Brasileiro goals from seven games with the winner in that match.

Experienced winger Douglas Costa will likely remain out through injury, leaving Alisson and Ferreira to operate on the flanks.

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Ivaldo, Fasson, Nicolas; Marcinho, Erick, Richard, Abner; Nikao, Kayzer, Rocha

Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Tressoldi, Rodrigues, Rafinha; Silva, Santos; Alisson, Villasanti, Ferreira; Borja


SM words green background

We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Gremio

Gremio are a far different side to the one that started the season, and present a formidable challenge for any side.

Given their recent revival, we see Athletico Paranaense having enough to avoid a defeat, and expect the sides to share the points in an interesting meeting.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:465267:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9819:
Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 47.25%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.95%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Gremio

Athletico Paranaense
62.5%
Draw
25.0%
Gremio
12.5%
8
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Palmeiras team huddle before the match on June 28, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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