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Athletico Paranaense
CONMEBOL Recopa | Final | 1st Leg
Feb 24, 2022 at 12.30am UK
Arena da Baixada
Palmeiras

Athletico PR
2 - 2
Palmeiras

Terans (19'), Marlos (76')
Heleno (70'), Erick (74'), Hernandez (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Jailson (28'), Veiga (90+7' pen.)

Preview: Athletico Paranaense vs. Palmeiras - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's CONMEBOL Recopa clash between Athletico Paranaense and Palmeiras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The first leg of the Recopa Sudamericana will take place on Wednesday when Athletico Paranaense welcome Palmeiras to the Arena da Baixada.

Both sides are looking to win the Recopa for the first time in their history after Athletico Paranaense fell short in 2019, while Palmeiras missed out last year.


Match preview

Athletico Paranaense's Abner Vinicius pictured in June 2021© Reuters

Athletico Paranaense earned their spot in the Recopa by winning last season's edition of the Copa Sudamericana.

After winning five of their six group games, Furacao ousted America de Cali, LDU Quito and Penarol to set up a final with fellow Brazilian side Red Bull Bragantino.

In the final, a first-half strike from Nikao proved to be the winner, as Athletico Paranaense held firm to win the Copa Sudamericana for only the second time in their history.

They had previously lifted the trophy in 2018, which earned them a place in the Recopa Sudamericana for the first time in their history, when they faced River Plate in 2019.

In that tie, Athletico Paranaense took a lead to Argentina after winning 1-0 at home, but River Plate cruised to a 3-0 win in the second leg and Wednesday's hosts will want to take a bigger lead into the second leg this time around.

Palmeiras coach Abel Ferreira on February 12, 2022© Reuters

Meanwhile, Palmeiras booked their place in the Recopa after winning the Copa Libertadores for the second year in a row.

After finishing top of their group, Abel Ferreira's side overcame Universidad Catolica, Sao Paulo and Atletico Mineiro to reach the final.

They faced Flamengo in Montevideo, and Palmeiras started brightly after Raphael Veiga gave his side the lead in the fifth minute, but a second-half strike from Gabriel Barbosa ensured that the contest would go to extra time where the trophy was won by Deyverson, who scored the winner to give Palmeiras their third Copa Libertadores title.

Not only did that victory earn them a place at the Recopa, but it also took them to the Club World Cup earlier this month, but unfortunately for the Alviverde, they fell just short in the final against Chelsea.

They will aim to use that disappointment, as well as their defeat on penalties against Defensa y Justicia in last year's Recopa, to fuel them to victory this time around.

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Palmeiras form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Raphael Veiga celebrates scoring for Palmeiras against Chelsea in the Club World Cup final on February 12, 2022.© Reuters

Athletico Paraneanse will have to do without Vitor Bueno for both legs of the final, with the 27-year-old serving a two-match suspension in CONMEBOL competitions.

The hosts are expected to line up with Pedro Henrique and Ze Ivaldo in the centre of defence.

David Terans scored three goals in last season's Copa Sudamericana campaign, and the 27-year-old will be aiming to play a key role on Wednesday.

As for Palmeiras, they are likely to be without the services of Ze Rafael, Gustavo Scarpa and Luan due to injury issues.

Veiga scored from the spot in the Club World Cup final defeat, and the 26-year-old will be one of the visitors's main goal threats in the Recopa.

Rony will also pose a danger to the Athletico Paranaense defence after top-scoring for Palmeiras in last season's Copa Libertadores campaign with six goals.

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Marcinho, Henrique, Ze Ivaldo, Abner; Erick, Christian, Terans; Cittadini, Rocha, Bissoli

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Ruan, Piquerez; Jailson, Danilo, Veiga; Dudu, Wesley, Rony


SM words green background

We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Palmeiras

Although they have home advantage for the first leg, we think that Athletico Paranaense will be unable to take a lead into the second leg, with Palmeiras currently enjoying a eight-game unbeaten run in meetings with Wednesday's opponents.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Palmeiras

Athletico Paranaense
22.2%
Draw
11.1%
Palmeiras
66.7%
9
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Kai Havertz celebrates scoring the winning goal for Chelsea against Palmeiras in the Club World Cup final on February 12, 2022.
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