Mexican outfit Atletico San Luis get their 2024 Leagues Cup campaign underway when they journey to the Saputo Stadium to take on CF Montreal on Tuesday.
Having suffered a heavy defeat against fellow MLS side Orlando City in Saturday's group opener, the CFM will head into the game needing all three points to keep their campaign alive.
Match preview
© Reuters
Atletico San Luis continue to struggle for consistency in the new Liga MX campaign as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Tijuana when the sides squared off two Saturdays ago.
In an end-to-end contest at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras, Franck Boli and Kevin Castaneda scored for either side to end the first half level before they repelled out each in the second half to force a share of the spoils.
Having kicked off the new campaign with a stunning comeback victory over defending champions Club America on July 7, San Luis have failed to win their subsequent three matches, picking up two draws and losing once.
Domenec Torrent will hope that his side can take the positives from the stalemate against Tijuana as they turn their attention to the Leagues Cup, where they will be looking to avoid a second consecutive group-stage exit following their disappointing 2023 run.
San Luis's two group-stage defeats last season came at the hands of MLS sides as they were thrashed 5-1 by New England Revolution in the opening game on July 27, four days before suffering a 2-1 loss against New England Revolution.
While Los Atleticos will head into Tuesday's tie looking to begin their cup campaign on a high, they have failed to win nine of their last 10 matches away from home, losing eight and claiming one draw since January.
© Reuters
On the other hand, it is all or nothing for Montreal who will need maximum points to keep their hopes of a place in the knockout stages alive after falling to a 4-1 defeat against Orlando City in Saturday's group opener.
In a one-sided affair at the Inter & Co Stadium, Orlando City stormed to a commanding four-goal lead courtesy of goals from Dagur Dan Porhallsson, Facundo Torres, Ramiro Enrique and Martin Ojeda before Josef Martinez grabbed a consolation for the visitors in the 68th minute.
This was in keeping with their recent struggles in MLS, where Montreal have failed to taste victory in four of their most recent five matches, losing twice and picking up two draws since the start of July.
The CFM have won just six of their 25 MLS matches this season while losing 10 and claiming nine draws to collect 27 points and sit 11th in the Eastern Conference standings, just four points above rock-bottom New England Revolution.
Like San Luis, Laurent Courtois's men will be looking to avoid a second straight group-stage exit from the Leagues Cup after they finished rock bottom in Group M with two points from their two matches last term.
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Boli has been a standout performer for San Luis this season, and the 30-year-old forward, who has had a goal involvement in eight consecutive games since March, will be one to keep an eye on.
He should form the attacking trio with Luis Najera and former Stuttgart forward Mateo Klimowicz, while Oscar Macias and Frenchman Sebastien Salles-Lamonge will likely retain their roles in midfield.
At the defensive end of the pitch, we should see an unchanged back three of Julio Cesar Dominguez, Rodrigo Dourado and Aldo Cruz, with Andres Sanchez starting between the sticks once again.
Having recently returned from a groin injury, Finnish striker Lassi Lappalainen was an unused substitute in Montreal's clash against Orlando City and the 21-year-old could be involved on Tuesday.
Experienced goalkeeper Logan Ketterer has been sidelined since picking up an ankle injury back in May and the 30-year-old is also out of contention for Torrent's side.
Atletico San Luis possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Dominguez, Dourado, Cruz; Chavez, Sanabria, Lamonge, Macias; Najera, Klimowicz, Boli
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Sirois; Waterman, Alvarez, Sosa; Ruan, Edwards, Piette, Choiniere; Vilsaint, Lassiter, Martinez
We say: Atletico San Luis 1-2 CF Montreal
Montreal are on the verge of elimination and will need no extra motivation to produce a positive showing following their humbling defeat against Orlando City. While San Luis have proven tough to crack this season, we predict that Montreal's home advantage will come into play here, with the MLS side claiming all three points.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico San Luis win with a probability of 51.08%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico San Luis win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
Joshua Ojele
