Augsburg take on Arminia Bielefeld in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the visitors looking to record back-to-back victories and move outside of the bottom three.
The hosts, meanwhile, enter the match six points ahead of Arminia in the table, so will be looking to win to end any lingering relegation fears.
Match preview
© Reuters
Heiko Herrlich would have been desperately disappointed to have become only the second side to be beaten by Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga this season after falling to a 1-0 defeat to the rock-bottom outfit last Sunday.
Rafal Gikiewicz failed to hold onto a routine save, instead spilling the ball into the path of Suat Serdar, who opened the scoring after only four minutes.
Generally, Augsburg prefer to hold onto a lead rather than chase one, but their performance actually merited at least an equaliser against the division's most accommodating defence.
Only poor finishing on the day from Marco Richter prevented them from doing so, with the forward firing straight at Ralf Fahrmann having been slipped in behind by Ruben Vargas.
Richter was guilty of a far worse miss after the half-time interval, somehow blazing over from close range after Raphael Framberger had brilliantly bustled down the right flank before accurately crossing the ball into the path of the 23-year-old.
Clearly desperate to score, Richter was unfortunate to see his acrobatic overhead kick saved by Fahrmann late on, with Augsburg falling to a damaging defeat.
Herrlich will be demanding more ruthlessness in front of goal against an Arminia side who have not been conceding many chances of late and will be scrapping for their lives, particularly as another defeat could drag Augsburg right into the relegation mix.
© Reuters
Indeed, Arminia are beginning to show a new lease of life under their new manager Frank Kramer, who has delivered eight points in his first six games in charge since replacing Uwe Neuhaus last month.
Die Arminen may not be as pleasing on the eye as they were at times under their predecessor, but there can be no denying that they now appear to be a more likely prospect to survive relegation in their first season back in the Bundesliga.
While there was an element of fortune regarding the way their 1-0 win at home against Freiburg last time out came about, with Masaya Okugawa's effort deflecting off Baptiste Santamaria and beyond a helpless Florian Muller in goal, they were deserved winners on the day after a spirited performance.
The visitors failed to muster a single shot on target across the 90 minutes, with Andreas Voglsammer, Fabian Klos and Ritsu Doan all going close to scoring for the hosts across the match.
Kramer will be hoping for a similar performance against Augsburg on Saturday, with the first goal likely to prove crucial between two low-scoring sides.
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg are likely to remain without Iago, Tim Civeja and Fredrik Jensen, but the trio are all expected to recover from injury at some point in April.
Herrlich could look to shake things up in attack after a misfiring display in the defeat at Schalke, with Florian Niederlechner offering a potentially more clinical alternative to Richter.
Arminia, meanwhile, will travel without Sergio Cordova, who is on loan from Augsburg, after the striker tested positive for COVID-19 prior to the win against Freiburg.
Reinhold Yabo, who is a close contact for Cordova, has also entered self-quarantine as a precautionary measure, so will not be available either.
Kramer is unlikely to make any changes to the XI which performed so well during last weekend's victory.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Gumny; Khedira, Gruezo; Caligiuri, Vargas; Niederlechner, Hahn
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Pieper, Nilsson, Lucoqui; Prietl, Maier; Doan, Okugawa, Voglsammer; Klos
We say: Augsburg 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Recent form suggests Augsburg will win this match given that they are currently on a streak of win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, but we can envisage that ending with a low-scoring draw between two evenly-matched sides.
Arminia look a much more solid proposition under Kramer, with a point potentially taking them out of the bottom three, depending on how Hertha Berlin fare against Mainz 05 in the weekend's big relegation clash.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
