The Los Angeles Galaxy will pay their very first visit to Q2 Stadium on Sunday looking to snap a six-match winless run when they face Austin FC.
The Verde-and-Black have dropped to the bottom of the Western Conference on the back of five consecutive defeats, while LA remain in fourth as they have fallen out of the race for first place.
Match preview
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When the season began, many experts out there had Austin finishing near the bottom of the standings for the sheer fact that they were an expansion franchise, with a lot of youngsters learning what it takes to play top flight football in North America.
Even though they are where we all expected them to be at the moment, they have not gone down quietly, dropping nine matches this year by a single goal.
Following a gut-wrenching 4-3 defeat to the San Jose Earthquakes last Saturday, goalkeeper Brad Stuver penned an emotional letter to the Verde-and-Black faithful asking them to stay behind this team while also vowing to battle hard for one another through the final stretch of the regular season.
With nine games to go and 15 points to make up, qualifying for the postseason may soon be out of sight for Josh Wolff and his team, but there are still plenty of opportunities for them to grow, while also playing the role of spoilers.
Their goalscoring has improved slightly from earlier this year as they are now second-last in that category behind FC Cincinnati, but the players have struggled to give their adoring fans a lot to cheer about at Q2 Stadium, losing three of their last four games played there.
A pair of summer signings has given them a significant boost offensively, but at the same time you are not going to win a lot of matches when you allow your opponents the kind of chances that Austin have lately, conceding 19 shots on target in their last three games along with nine goals.
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A season that began with so much promise for Greg Vanney and the Galaxy has gone south for them lately as they are stuck in fourth place in the Conference.
What is perhaps the most surprising part about where they currently sit in the standings is the fact that LA are in a position to host a playoff game, and yet they have an inferior goal difference, which currently stands at -3.
Last weekend the Galaxy conceded three goals to a side in Minnesota United who are currently the second-lowest scoring team in the Conference, the sixth straight game in which LA have allowed at least one goal.
While we should expect to see them in the postseason, they have not made it easy on themselves, currently only five points above the playoff line.
Losing some key players through injury has definitely played a big factor in their recent struggles, as they have shown a real lack of depth in the final third.
It is not just the losses that have been frustrating for Vanney and his staff to watch but also the manner in which they have been losing, particularly on the road, where they have dropped four matches by a margin of three or more goals.
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Team News
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Austin continue to be without Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld, who both have left knee injuries, Ben Sweat has an ACL problem, Danny Hoesen has a left hip issue, Matt Besler is still dealing with a concussion and Alexander Ring will not be available for this one following his expulsion versus the Quakes.
Since signing Sebastian Driussi and Moussa Djitte Austin have been a lot sharper in front of goal, averaging 1.5 goals a game since the pair arrived, with 12 goals in eight matches since Druissi made his first start for his new team on August 14.
Jon Gallagher notched his third of the season in the loss to San Jose, while Cecilio Dominguez is without a goal in his last five games, currently just one behind Diego Fagundez for the team lead and tied for most assists this season with his teammates Jared Stroud and Druissi.
The goalscoring that made LA so exciting to watch in the early stages of this campaign has gone stale largely due to the absence of Chicharito, who has missed a significant amount of time with a calf injury, only appearing last week as a second half substitute.
Defender Derrick Williams and starting keeper Jonathan Bond remain questionable with undisclosed injuries, so we could see Jonathan Klinsmann make his third successive start in goal.
The last time these sides faced each other in May, which was also their first ever meeting, Sebastian Lletget was the hero, scoring the winner in the 35th minute to help LA to a 2-0 victory, his only goal to date this season.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Jimenez, Cascante, Romana, Kolmanic; Pereira, Gallagher, Pochettino; Stroud, Druissi, Dominguez
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Klinsmann; Hamalainen, Steres, Coulibaly, Villafana; Lletget, dos Santos, Vazquez, Grandsir; Chicharito, Joveljic
We say: Austin FC 3-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
Both teams have to be frustrated with their play of late, but the spirits of the Verde-and-Black will likely be higher, as they have not exactly underachieved in recent games when you consider where many expected them to finish in their inaugural campaign.
Morale is very low for LA right now, and the Galaxy have been very poor defensively on the road this season, conceding 25 goals.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.37%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
