The Los Angeles Galaxy begin their Texas road trip on Sunday when they take on Austin FC at Q2 Stadium for the first time this season.
Austin are the second-best team in Major League Soccer, sitting two points behind Los Angeles FC in the Western Conference, while the Galaxy trail the Verde and Black by four points after dropping a 1-0 decision to Real Salt Lake last weekend.
Match preview
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What is happening right now in the Texas capital has to be one of the feel-good stories to date of the 2022 campaign.
In their sophomore season of MLS, Josh Wolff has transformed this club from a Western Conference bottom feeder to a team that right now look like title contenders.
Despite a hot start to the season, earning a point in eight of nine matches, many pundits are not convinced that this group can maintain its excellent form.
Only one of their games played thus far came against a team currently in a playoff position (Minnesota United), and in the weeks to come, the Verde and Black will face some stiff competition.
Two of their next three games are on the road against the Galaxy, Los Angeles FC and RSL, who combined have 54 points between them so far in 2022.
It remains to be seen if Austin are for real and will continue to overachieve as we have seen, but it seems evident that they have grown by leaps and bounds from 2021, only three wins shy of their entire regular-season total from last year (nine).
The Verde and Black are a team with a lot of flair and quality both in midfield and attack with a never-say-die attitude, collecting seven points already this year after conceding the opening goal.
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Another side enjoying a solid bounce-back campaign from a year ago would be the LA Galaxy, who have been surprisingly sharp defensively to start the season.
In 2021, their downfall was on the back end, allowing far too much time and space to their opponents in transition, conceding the second-most goals in the Western Conference (54).
At the moment, Greg Vanney has seen them buckle down in that department allowing the second-fewest goals in the league (seven) while also having a lot more balance to their attack.
They were unlucky to come away with nothing last Saturday in Salt Lake City as an equalising goal minutes from the end was controversially overturned by VAR for offside.
That defeat snapped a five-match unbeaten run for LA in all competitions, their longest stretch without a loss since the 2019 campaign.
If they are missing anything right now, it might be a lack of service in midfield, as their fullbacks have become the primary providers after nine matches.
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Team News
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Sebastian Driussi remains tied with Jesus Jimenez of Toronto in the Golden Boot race, notching the winner in a 2-1 comeback win over the Houston Dynamo, with the other tally in that fixture coming from Daniel Pereira, his first of the campaign.
Goalkeeper Brad Stuver suffered what his coach called a significant laceration across his knee early in the Copa Tejas against Orange Crush and was replaced by Andrew Tarbell, though Wolff said that everything looks structurally good for their first-choice keeper.
Diego Fagundez leads the league in assists with six, setting up the winner from Driussi last week, and Ethan Finlay notched his first assist this year in that match.
Dejan Joveljic was nearly the hero for the Galaxy in back-to-back weeks, but unfortunately, his equaliser was disallowed versus RSL for offside.
Los Angeles made a deal on Wednesday, acquiring defender Chase Gasper from Minnesota United in exchange for $750,000 in General Allocation Money.
It has been a rough beginning for Douglas Costa and Kevin Cabral in midfield, with the two combining for just a single goal involvement so far this season, while Raheem Edwards has been among their top contributors, leading the team with three assists.
LA have three players currently on the injured list, including Adam Saldana (left ankle), Jorge Villafana (left knee) and Victor Vazquez (right upper leg).
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Tarbell; Kolmanic, Gabrielsen, Cascante, Lima; Pereira, Ring; Fagundez, Driussi, Finlay; Urruti
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Edwards, Williams, DePuy, Araujo; Delgado, Raveloson; Grandsir, Costa, Alvarez; Chicharito
We say: Austin FC 1-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
It should be a fascinating contest between the top attacking unit in the league (Austin) and the second-best defensive side in MLS (LA).
They each have some outstanding attacking players who are x-factors, but neither side allow a lot of chances, with Austin only conceding two goals at home this year, while the Galaxy have only allowed more than one strike in one encounter this season, so all things considered, expect this to be a stalemate.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 49.31%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 26.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
