AZ Alkmaar and FC Twente draw the curtain on matchday 26 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season with a meeting at the AFAS Stadion on Sunday.
The home side are looking to make it six league wins on the trot, while the visitors have lost just once in their last 14 league outings either side of the new year.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar have work to do in the return leg of their Conference League tie against Bodo/Glimt following a 2-1 defeat in the first leg on Thursday.
After going behind to Amahl Pellegrino's opener in the 39th minute, Pascal Jansen's men hit back through Zakaria Aboukhlal with just under 20 minutes left to play before Ola Solbakken held his nerve from 12 yards in stoppage time to settle the contest.
The Cheeseheads made light work of NEC in their last league involvement courtesy of a 3-1 victory, which has seen them move to within a point of Feyenoord in third.
Having won 11 of their last 15 meetings against Twente since 2015, AZ will be confident of exacting revenge for a 3-1 defeat in September's reverse fixture.
Sunday's hosts have since claimed a 2-1 KNVB-Beker victory in January and this weekend's clash represents a perfect chance for both teams to land the final blow this season.
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FC Twente saw off the threat of a struggling Cambuur side on Sunday to claim a slender albeit much-needed 1-0 victory at Grolsch Veste Stadium.
Robin Propper's 63rd-minute strike proved to be the difference for Ron Jans's men on a day when Ricky van Wolfswinkel fluffed his lines from the penalty spot.
The Tukkers are just three points and one place behind their next opponents in the league standings and would move level on points should they come away with the victory.
Sunday's visitors have let in 22 of their 30 league goals on the road and will need to be at alert defensively to avoid being picked apart by a side who have been dominant on their own turf all-season long.
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Team News
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Twenty-three-year-old Jelle Duin remains unavailable for AZ Alkmaar having gone under the knife back in December last year due to a knee injury.
Owen Wijndal has served his one-game ban for accumulation of yellow cards, and the left-back is expected back in the starting XI for this one after sitting out the NEC game.
Fredrik Midtsjo has missed his each of his side's last three games through a minor injury, and the Norwegian is a doubt for Sunday's contest.
Twente's Wout Brama and Mees Hilgers are sidelined with muscle and knee injuries respectively, while Luca Everink is currently battling with a leg injury.
Ricky van Wolfswinkel had a day to forget last time out, but the ex-Basel striker is set to lead the line once again with the supporting cast of Virgil Misidjan and Daan Rots set to be deployed.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Chatzidiakos, Sugawara; Clasie, Reijnders, De Wit; Karlsson, Pavlidis, Aboukhlal
FC Twente possible starting lineup:
Unnerstall; Smal, Pleguezuelo, Propper, Brenet; Sadilek, Zerrouki, Vlap; Rots, Van Wolfswinkel, Misidjan
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 FC Twente
The teams are closely matched in the league table, and we expect that to translate to an enthralling affair with plenty of goalmouth action at both ends. That said, we are also tipping AZ Alkmaar to come out on top at the sound of the final whistle in this one.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 66.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 13.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a FC Twente win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
