Bayern Munich need a performance of extraordinary measures if they are to overcome Barcelona in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final on Tuesday evening.
Barcelona were 3-0 winners in the first leg last week, with a brace from Lionel Messi and late Neymar effort leaving the Spanish side as the strong favourites to make an eighth European Cup final.
Bayern Munich
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Bayern were confirmed as Bundesliga champions with four games to spare on April 26, but incredibly, they have not picked up a league point since and were beaten 1-0 at home to Augsburg at the weekend – hardly ideal preparation for this match. A third straight league title is obviously a big plus, but it does appear that it will be disappointment in the Champions League once again.
Bayern are five-time winners of the European Cup, but they suffered a 5-0 aggregate defeat to Real Madrid at this stage last season and are more than halfway to that deficit after losing by three clear goals at the Camp Nou last time out. The Germans do have a 100% record at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League this season, however, winning all five home games on their route to the final four.
The omens might be against the German side, but they have beaten Shakhtar Donetsk 7-0 and Porto 6-1 in Munich this season, with the latter result taking them into the semi-finals. Their overall home record against Spanish opposition is also very strong – winning 15 of their 22 games and losing just twice. That said, one of those defeats (4-0) came against Real Madrid at this stage last season.
Bayern have also recovered from an away first-leg defeat on 10 occasions – including against Porto last time out. However, that match was the first time that they had retrieved a two-goal deficit. They held Barcelona until the 77th minute last week, but a sensational double from Messi and a stoppage-time effort from Neymar has made this almost an impossible task for the German champions.
Few know Barcelona like Bayern boss Pep Guardiola, with the Spaniard winning 14 trophies during a four-year spell with the Catalan outfit. Five more trophies have followed at Bayern, but there are reports that he could be willing to leave for Manchester City this summer. One thing is for certain, Guardiola needs a miracle if Bayern are to make an 11th European Cup final this term.
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Barcelona
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One foot in the final of the Champions League and one hand on the La Liga title – it has been some week for the Catalan outfit.
Saturday's 2-0 win over Real Sociedad in the league has left them four points clear of second-placed Real Madrid in La Liga, who dropped points at home to Valencia.
That is a very strong lead with just two matches remaining, although a strike in Spain means that Barcelona are still waiting to find out whether they will travel to Atletico Madrid in the league on Sunday.
Luis Enrique's side have not been beaten in any competition since February 21, when they lost 1-0 at home to Malaga. They have also won each of their last eight games in all competitions and quite incredibly, only conceded once in the process. The treble is still very much on, but that will depend on whether their Copa del Rey final against Athletic Bilbao goes ahead later this month.
Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez have stolen the headlines in the last few months, with the trio now on 112 goals between them for the season, which is a club record. Their form has helped Barca win 38 of their last 42 games in all competitions, but Enrique's side also have the best defensive record in Spain – an area that has certainly improved this season.
In terms of this particular competition, Barcelona are seeking their eighth final appearance. They have won their last four away games in the Champions League, while they have actually only lost six of their 25 away games in Germany. What's more, Barca have progressed in 37 of the 39 European ties where they won the first leg at home, which is an incredible record.
In fact, the biggest first-leg lead that Barca have seen disappear was in the 1983-84 European Cup, when they lost 3-2 on aggregate to Manchester United having won the first leg 2-0 away from home. The Spanish side are also in their seventh Champions League semi-final in the last eight seasons, but they have not won the competition since the 2010-11 season.
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Team News
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Injuries have hit Bayern hard in the last couple of months and they will again be without a number of key players in Munich. David Alaba, Holger Badstuber, Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben are all still on the sidelines, but Robert Lewandowski is expected to play once again with a facial mask.
Mehdi Benatia, Xabi Alonso, Rafinha and Manuel Neuer all started the Augsburg match on the bench and should return here, while Mario Gotze will be hoping for a spot in the XI.
Guardiola is not expected to make too many changes from the first leg, but Gotze for Juan Bernat is an alteration that is reportedly being considered. Javi Martinez is also available following a cruciate knee ligament injury and certainly knows what it takes to face Barcelona following his time in Spain.
Barcelona, on the other hand, have a fully-fit squad and are indeed also free from suspension. Jeremy Mathieu missed the first leg with an Achilles problem, but has been passed fit ahead of the match.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta, Ivan Rakitic and Jordi Alba should also return to the XI after being rested for the Sociedad match last time out, while Messi, Suarez and Neymar will continue in the final third. Xavi is expected to start on the bench, but the Spaniard will become the first player to make 150 Champions League appearances if he takes to the field.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Rafinha, Boateng, Benatia, Lahm; Schweinsteiger, Alonso, Thiago; Muller, Lewandowski, Gotze
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Alba; Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta; Neymar, Suarez, Messi
Head To Head
The last time that the pair met in Munich was in the semi-finals of the 2012-13 season, when Bayern recorded a 4-0 victory – eventually advancing into the final 7-0 on aggregate. Bayern also beat Barcelona 4-3 on aggregate on their way to lifting the 1995-96 UEFA Cup.
Guardiola was in charge of Barcelona, however, when the Spanish outfit overcame Bayern 4-3 on aggregate in the quarter-finals of the 2008-09 Champions League.
In total, these two teams have met on nine occasions, with Bayern recording five wins, Barcelona two, and the further two matches ending in draws.
We say: Bayern Munich 1-1 Barcelona
Bayern will surely put up much more of a fight in the second leg, but it is so difficult to imagine them doing enough to turn the tie around. A 2-0 first-leg defeat would not have been the end of the world, but Neymar's effort in stoppage time has made Bayern's task almost impossible.
Barcelona will certainly not have it all their own way in Munich, but they are in such good form at the moment that it is tough to predict them losing. Bayern could well score first, but Barcelona's confidence is so high that a draw seems the most likely outcome.
Matt Law
