Having failed to capitalise on numerous chances to kill the game off in the first leg, Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Camp Nou to face Barcelona in the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final on Thursday night.
The two outfits played out an entertaining 1-1 at the Deutsche Bank Park last week and are vying for the chance to meet either West Ham United or Lyon in the semi-finals.
Match preview
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One would typically expect one of Barcelona's famed attacking names to come up with the finish that Ansgar Knauff did in the first leg last week, but it was the Frankfurt man who stunned the Blaugrana with a peach of a half-volley from outside the area with 48 minutes gone.
The 10 men of Frankfurt could and should have chalked up more than just the one goal on the night, and that lack of ruthlessness allowed Barcelona a route back into the game, which they took through Ferran Torres after a lovely team move involving substitutes Frenkie De Jong and Ousmane Dembele.
Being held to a 1-1 stalemate by a Frankfurt side who had previously struggled for any sort of attacking impetus was a slight hit to the Barcelona momentum under Xavi, whose side were on the brink of dropping points against Levante before an unlikely name in Luuk de Jong saved their bacon in stoppage time for a 3-2 win.
Now unbeaten in 15 matches across all competitions - a stark contrast to the forgettable days of the Ronald Koeman era - Barcelona have only been eliminated in one of their last six European ties when avoiding defeat in the first leg, and it is difficult to imagine how Frankfurt's plethora of missed opportunities will not begin to haunt them.
La Blaugrana are also welcoming Frankfurt to a ground where they have kept four clean sheets on the spin since that 1-1 draw with Napoli in the last-32 stage back in February, and now would be as good a time as ever to claim their first Europa League win on home soil since 2004.
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It was a sense of deja vu for Frankfurt in the first leg after they were previously held to a 1-1 draw at home in the last-16 by Spanish opposition in Real Betis, but seeing a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions come to an end at the weekend was not ideal preparation for a trip to Catalonia.
Going 1-0 down and losing midfield enforcer Djibril Sow to injury represented a dismal first half for Frankfurt against Freiburg, and while they did respond to Vincenzo Grifo's opener through Filip Kostic, Nils Petersen completed the job for Freiburg in the 69th minute.
Oliver Glasner's side held the label of resident draw specialists before suffering that 2-1 loss to Freiburg, and it is now five games without a win domestically and continentally for Die Adler, who are facing an uphill struggle to match their semi-final finish in the 2018-19 Europa League.
The bulk of Frankfurt's matches in their recent winless run have come at the Deutsche Bank Park, though, with the Bundesliga club claiming three wins from four away from home in the 2021-22 Europa League so far, and they need no lessons in carving their way through the Barcelona backline.
Thursday's second leg will mark Frankfurt's first-ever trip to Camp Nou for a competitive clash, and while Die Adler have strung together a nine-game unbeaten run against Spanish sides, Barcelona have lost twice at home in 16 meetings with clubs from the Bundesliga.
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Team News
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Barcelona lost Gerard Pique to an adductor issue in the first leg, but he is in the squad for this game alongside Sergino Dest, and Xavi's defensive issues are once again complicated by Sergi Roberto and Samuel Umtiti's injuries, as well as Dani Alves's ineligibility.
Ansu Fati continues to train with the group but is not expected to be risked just yet, while Memphis Depay is back with the ball at his feet following a thigh injury and will be assessed ahead of this one.
Pique's absence opens up a spot for Clement Lenglet to rejoin the defence should Ronald Araujo continue to fill in at right-back, while Pedri bagged a goal off the bench at the weekend and will also expect to rotate back into the side in place of Nico Gonzalez.
Frankfurt boss Glasner will also be forced into a defensive reshuffle after Tuta was sent off for two bookable offences in the first leg, with Makoto Hasebe the likely candidate to deputise in the back three.
Midfield regular Sow was taken off with a knee ligament strain in the Freiburg loss, although Glasner is still hopeful that he will be able to play some part in midweek; Sebastian Rode should join Kristijan Jakic in the engine room if not.
Christopher Lenz and Diant Ramaj are keeping Sow company in the treatment room, and creative hub Daichi Kamada will hope to force his way back into the XI, but Jens Petter Hauge has given Glasner food for thought with an assist at the weekend.
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Araujo, Lenglet, Garcia, Alba; Pedri, Busquets, F. De Jong; Dembele, Aubameyang, Torres
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Trapp; Hasebe, Hinteregger, Ndicka; Knauff, Rode, Jakic, Kostic; Lindstrom, Kamada; Borre
We say: Barcelona 3-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Barcelona win 4-2 on aggregate)
In spite of their dissatisfactory winless run, Frankfurt caused the Barcelona defence all sorts of problems in the first leg and should have no problem doing so again with a number of Xavi's defensive regulars absent for one reason or the other.
Keeping the ball away from their own goal at Camp Nou will be the ultimate test for Frankfurt, and given Barcelona's recent spate of dominance at home and well-stocked attacking options, the Catalans should book their place in the final four with minimal fuss.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 46.68%. A win for Eintracht Frankfurt had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Eintracht Frankfurt win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
