Bayer Leverkusen will travel to Budapest for their final Europa League Group H encounter against basement club Ferencvaros on Thursday night.
The visitors have already qualified for the last 32 as group winners, while the hosts are hoping to avoid a sixth straight defeat.
Match preview
© Reuters
Ferencvaros are the only team in this season's Europa League who are yet to claim a single point in the group stage, losing all five matches and conceding 12 goals in the process.
A 2-0 defeat away against Real Betis in their most recent Group H match saw them become the second Hungarian side to lose their first five group matches in a single season after Debrecen back in 2010-11.
While their Europa League campaign has been disappointing, Peter Stoger's side have performed well domestically, winning 10 of their first 14 games in the Nemzeti Bajnoksag and are sitting top of the table, hoping to clinch their fourth successive title.
Ferencvaros's only previous meeting against Bayer Leverkusen saw the German outfit win 2-1 on home soil in September, a game in which the Hungarians were leading when Ryan Mmaee found the net in the eighth minute.
The Green Eagles have nothing but pride to play for on Thursday night but will be aiming to finish their group-stage campaign with at least a point on the board.
© Reuters
After a difficult period in October – winning only one of their six matches across all competitions – Bayer Leverkusen enjoyed a more successful spell in November, winning four and drawing one of their five games, scoring 12 goals in the process.
Die Werkself have since followed up their improved form with an emphatic start to December, thrashing Bundesliga's basement club Greuther Furth 7-1 on home soil last weekend.
First-half strikes from Amine Adli, Edmond Tapsoba and Piero Hincapie put the hosts in control before Patrick Schick scored four goals after the break to seal their biggest victory of the campaign.
Gerardo Seoane's men remain third in the German top flight, but have moved to within three points of Borussia Dortmund in second place.
Leverkusen have also impressed in the Europa League this term, qualifying for the last 32 as Group H winners with a game to spare.
Die Werkself have won six of their last nine away matches in European competition, scoring at least three times on six occasions during this run. They have also won all three of their European games against Hungarian opposition, so they will be full of confidence heading into Thursday's fixture.
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Ferencvaros midfielder David Siger is their only injury concern, as he continues to recover from a long-term ligament problem.
Albania international Myrto Uzuni – who has scored 20 goals in 27 games across all competitions this season, including strikes in their previous two Europa League home matches – missed the defeat against Real Betis but will be in contention to start up front on Thursday alongside Mmaee and Tokmac Nguen.
As for Leverkusen, Mitchel Bakker (ankle), Julian Baumgartlinger (knee) and Timothy Fosu-Mensah (ACL) are all ruled out with injuries.
Teenage starlet Florian Wirtz – who has been directly involved in six goals in the Europa League this term, scoring three and providing three assists – could be rested for this contest, as could the likes of Schick, Moussa Diaby and Jonathan Tah.
Kerem Demirbay, who is back from suspension, or Nadiem Amiri may replace Wirtz in an advanced midfield role, while Lucas Alario, Karim Bellarabi and Odilon Kossounou could be brought into the first XI after starting on the bench at the weekend.
Ferencvaros possible starting lineup:
Dibusz; Botka, S. Mmaee, Blazic; Wingo, Laidouni, Vecsei, Civic; Uzuni, R. Mmaee, Nguen
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Kossounou, Tapsoba, Sinkgraven; Aranguiz, Demirbay; Bellarabi, Amiri, Adli; Alario
We say: Ferencvaros 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Even though Leverkusen are expected to rotate their starting lineup, they will be the strong favourites to come away with all three points on Thursday.
With several fringe players looking to take their chance in the first XI and impress Seoane, a routine victory seems to be on the cards at the Groupama Arena.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 52.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Ferencvaros had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Ferencvaros win it was 1-0 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
