Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha Berlin will both be seeking to claim back-to-back Bundesliga victories when they lock horns at the BayArena on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts remain in the hunt for Champions League qualification, while the visitors are still battling against relegation.
Match preview
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After four games without a win in March, including three defeats, Bayer Leverkusen ended the month on a high with a 2-0 victory away at Wolfsburg.
The game was seemingly heading towards a goalless draw before a late brace from substitute Paulinho, who scored in the 86th and 92nd minutes, helped the visitors secure all three points – the 21-year-old Brazilian had not scored in any of his 16 previous Bundesliga appearances this term before this fixture.
Gerardo Seoane will have been pleased to have seen defensive improvements from his side, who had previously kept just one clean sheet in 14 league matches prior to their win without reply in Wolfsburg.
Leverkusen remain third in the table, three points ahead of Freiburg in fifth and four points clear of Hoffenheim in sixth, who currently occupy the final European spot, with seven games remaining.
The Eternal Bridesmaids head into Saturday's contest having failed to win any of their last five meetings with Hertha Berlin, drawing a blank in front of goal on four of these occasions. However, Seoane's men will be hoping to have more joy in the final third this time around against one of the weakest defensive sides in the division.
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Hertha Berlin's defensive frailties have been one of their major downfalls this campaign and only basement club Greuther Furth (70) have conceded more than the capital outfit in 2021-22.
However, newly-appointed head coach Felix Magath made an immediate impact in his first game in charge, albeit away from the dugout after contracting COVID-19, as he watched his new side secure an impressive 3-0 victory at home against Champions League-chasing Hoffenheim on March 19.
Led by Magath's Scottish assistant Mark Fotheringham, Hertha secured their first win in 2022 and ended their miserable 10-game run without a win, thanks to strikes from Niklas Stark, Ishak Belfodil and Lucas Tousart.
Hertha have moved out of the bottom two and now occupy the relegation playoff position, sitting level on points with both Augsburg and Stuttgart with seven Bundesliga matches remaining.
Die Alte Dame came close to securing all three points in the reverse fixture against Leverkusen, but they were denied victory by a 90th-minute equaliser from Robert Andrich, which forced both sides to settle for a 1-1 draw in November.
Hertha will need to improve their form away from home if they wish to claim a positive result on Saturday and climb away from danger, as they head to the BayArena after failing to win any of their last eight Bundesliga games on the road.
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Team News
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Bayer Leverkusen will be without key attackers Patrik Schick (calf) and Florian Wirtz (ACL) – the latter ruled out for the rest of the season – while Jeremie Frimpong (ankle), Timothy Fosu-Mensah (muscle) and Amine Adli (Achilles) are also sidelined with injuries.
Kerem Demirbay is suspended, due to an accumulation of yellow cards, so either Exequiel Palacios or Charles Aranguiz is set to partner Andrich in centre-midfield.
Moussa Diaby, Paulinho and Karim Bellarabi could all be handed starts, providing support for January signing Sardar Azmoun, who is set to lead the line.
As for Hertha Berlin, Rune Jarstein and Kelian Nsona remain sidelined with long-term knee injuries, while Vladimir Darida is doubtful after testing positive for COVID-19 last week.
Top scorer Stevan Jovetic, who has six strikes to his name this term, is suffering with a muscle injury and will be assessed ahead of kickoff to see if he can feature this weekend. Belfodil will likely get the nod to start up front if Jovetic is not deemed fit to play.
Magath used a 4-1-4-1 formation in his first game in charge and after a convincing victory using this system, he is set to stick with it on Saturday, with Stark operating as a defensive midfielder, protecting a back four of Peter Pekarik, Dedryck Boyata, Marc-Oliver Kempf and Marvin Plattenhardt.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Kossounou, Tah, Tapsoba, Bakker; Aranguiz, Andrich; Bellarabi, Paulinho, Diaby; Azmoun
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Lotka; Pekarik, Boyata, Kempf, Plattenhardt; Stark; Richter, Ascacibar, Tousart, Serdar; Belfodil
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Leverkusen's head-to-head record against Hertha is poor, but the hosts will head into Saturday's fixture as they favourites, given there are 13 places and 22 points separating the two teams at present.
Seoane will be without a number of key players, but his team should still have enough quality within their ranks to secure a slender victory at the BayArena.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 74.14%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 10.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 3-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.81%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 1-2 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Bayer Leverkusen in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Bayer Leverkusen.
