RB Leipzig take on Bayern Munich in a top-of-the-table Bundesliga clash on Saturday, with the hosts needing to win to close the gap on their title rivals.
Bayern currently have a four-point lead ahead of Leipzig, so may view avoiding defeat as a huge step towards claiming their ninth successive title.
Match preview
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Leipzig head into the pivotal clash on an unbeaten run of eight league matches, and should have no reason to fear Bayern after claiming a point against them in Munich after a pulsating 3-3 draw in December.
As he has done on several occasions this season, Julian Nagelsmann elected to start without a recognised striker last time out against Arminia Bielefeld, with his side perhaps unsurprisingly executing an excellent style of football but struggling to find the killer strike as a result.
Indeed, Arminia could not live with Leipzig's interplay in the first half, but had their goalkeeper Stefan Ortega to thank in terms of keeping the scoreline level heading into the half-time interval.
However, the visitors' pressure finally told as Marcel Sabitzer converted from close range less than a minute into the second half.
Leipzig subsequently found more joy in behind Arminia's defence as the relegation strugglers pushed for an equaliser, but Hwang Hee-chan and Yussuf Poulsen were guilty of profligacy themselves as Nagelsmann's side had to settle for a narrow 1-0 victory.
Every win counts at this stage of proceedings, though, with three more points required against Bayern on Saturday if Die Roten Bullen are to have a realistic chance of winning their first ever Bundesliga title.
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Bayern, meanwhile, showed their dominance over most of the rest of the division last time out by swatting Stuttgart aside 4-0, despite losing Alphonso Davies to a straight red card in only the 12th minute of the match.
The left-back was initially shown a yellow card after going over the top of the ball with his studs, but saw the card upgraded to a red one after a VAR check.
However, Stuttgart appeared to be peculiarly unsettled by the subsequent shift in dynamics in the match, with Bayern ruthlessly exposing Pellegrino Matarazzo's side on the counter-attack in a brutal first-half performance.
Serge Gnabry crossed for Robert Lewandowski to stab home and open the scoring, before Gnabry himself capped a fine team move to double the Bavarians' lead.
Less than one minute later Lewandowski rose highest to head home from Thomas Muller's superb cross, before the Poland striker sealed a first-half hat-trick with a simple finish as Hansi Flick's side embarrassed their opponents.
Sasa Kalajdzic was denied the chance to extend his goalscoring run by a fine Manuel Neuer stop as the match otherwise fizzled out in the second half.
Even with 11 men, though, Bayern will almost certainly find Leipzig far more difficult opponents than Stuttgart, especially with a few key players unavailable for Flick due to injury and suspension.
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Team News
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Leipzig will be without the suspended Kevin Kampl after the midfielder picked up his fifth booking of the season in Bielefeld, so Amadou Haidara or Tyler Adams may partner Sabitzer at the heart of Nagelsmann's midfield.
Defender Dayot Upamecano, who will join Bayern from Leipzig in the summer, should be fit to return after recovering from a muscle injury, but Marcel Halstenberg will miss out after testing positive for COVID-19.
Dominik Szoboszlai and Konrad Laimer will not feature due to groin and knee problems, with the match also likely to come too soon for Angelino after his recent muscular issue.
Nagelsmann must choose whether to start without a recognised striker once again, which worked quite well for him in the reverse fixture.
Bayern's most notable absentee is Lewandowski, who has been ruled out for up to a month after his knee problem flared up again while on international duty with Poland.
Flick must choose between Eric Choupo-Moting, Gnabry or Muller in the central striker role, with the Champions League quarter-final tie against Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday perhaps influencing his decision.
Davies and Jerome Boateng are also both unavailable against Leipzig due to suspension, with Lucas Hernandez and Niklas Sule likely to replace them in the starting XI.
Douglas Costa, Corentin Tolisso and Ron-Thorben Hoffmann are all still on the treatment table for the foreseeable future.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Orban, Upamecano, Klostermann; Mukiele, Adams, Sabitzer, Haidara; Olmo, Nkunku, Forsberg
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Hernandez; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Coman; Gnabry
We say: RB Leipzig 1-1 Bayern Munich
With both sides potentially starting without a recognised striker, it is tough to envisage as many goals as in the reverse fixture, especially with the amount at stake for both teams.
While the onus is more on Leipzig to win the match, they have only beaten Bayern once in 11 meetings, so may find the psychological hurdle too high to scale even without Lewandowski on the pitch.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 61.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.95%) and 0-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a RB Leipzig win it was 2-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
