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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 9
May 17, 2020 at 1pm UK
Spartak Stadium

Belshina
1 - 1
Vitebsk

Glebko (63' pen.)
Kuchinski (4'), Bordukov (9'), Bashilov (30'), Nechaev (47'), Yasykevich (82'), Solanovich (90+1'), Glebko (90+4')
Yasykevich (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Cesar (78')
Nazarenko (17'), Carioca (25'), Matveenko (29'), Cesar (32')

Preview: Belshina vs. Vitebsk - predictions, form guide, head-to-head record

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Vysheyshaya Liga clash between Belshina and Vitebsk, including predictions, form guides and head-to-head records.

Bottom-of-the-table Belshina will play host to Vitebsk in the Belarusian Premier League at the Spartak Stadium on Sunday lunchtime.

Belshina are without a win from their first eight games of the 2020 campaign, while Vitebsk currently lie 10th in the table heading into gameweek nine.


Match preview

Neman's Andrei Vasilyev in action with Belshina's Yevgeni Skoblikov on April 10, 2020© Reuters

Belshina have been handed a harsh welcome back to life in the Belarusian top flight after a three-year stint in the second division.

The recently-appointed Dmitri Migas witnessed his side succumb to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Isloch last time out, their third successive defeat in the Vysheyshaya Liga.

Last season's Belarusian second division champions have only picked up two points from a possible 24 thus far, and Belshina's -9 goal difference is currently the worst in the league.

Migas's side have netted a mere six goals during the 2020 campaign and are without a clean sheet in the early stages of the season.

However, Belshina could rise above fellow strugglers Smolevichi with their first victory of the season on Sunday, although only two of their six strikes have been scored in front of their own fans.

Vitebsk are also without a win in their last three Vysheyshaya Liga matches but a strong set of results earlier in the season sees them sit on 11 points after eight matches.

Sergey Yasinsky's side have amassed three wins, two draws and three losses at this stage of the campaign, and Vitebsk managed to end Shakhtyor Soligorsk's three-game winning run last weekend as the two clubs played out a goalless draw.

Like their opponents, Vitebsk have also found the net six times in the Belarusian top flight thus far, with two of their strikes coming on the road against Smolevichi and Slutsk respectively.

Vitebsk's most recent victory saw them enjoy a 1-0 triumph over current champions Dinamo Brest courtesy of Ion Nicolaescu's penalty, but there is still plenty of work to be done if Yasinsky's men are to improve on last season's 13th-placed finish.

Belshina Vysheyshaya Liga form: LDDLLL

Vitebsk Vysheyshaya Liga form: WDWLLD


Head To Head

Sunday's clash represents the 31st meeting between the two sides since 1996, with Belshina picking up 16 wins compared to Vitebsk's nine.

Vitebsk enjoyed two 1-0 victories during the 2016 campaign when the sides last met - and Belshina have failed to take all three points against their opponents since 2011.

Interestingly, Vitebsk have netted one goal in the last four meetings between the two clubs, but Yasinsky's side had failed to score in the previous six clashes between 2010 and 2015.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Belshina 0-1 Vitebsk

Belshina are at risk of a swift return to the Belarusian second division should results not improve soon, and even though Migas's men boast the better overall record against Vitebsk, it is difficult to go against the away side given the early-season form of both clubs.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belshina win with a probability of 43.9%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belshina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Dinamo Minsk27197148113764
2Neman29195541192262
3Torpedo-BelAZTorpedo-BelAZ28168442212156
4Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest29146961362548
5Vitebsk29145103324947
6Gomel281110737271043
7SlutskSlutsk29116122640-1439
8IslochIsloch29108113530538
9BATE BorisovBATE28107113133-237
10Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2998122836-835
11Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr28810102831-334
12Smorgon28611112844-1629
13FC MinskFC Minsk29610132840-1228
14Naftan29411142644-1823
15Dnepr Mogilev2929182557-3215
16Shakhtyor SoligorskSoligorsk2857161842-242


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