Promoted sides Benevento and Spezia meet in Campania on Saturday, as a season of seeking Serie A salvation continues for both.
Pippo Inzaghi's Giallorossi welcome their Northern counterparts to Stadio Ciro Vigorito, sitting one point and three places above them in the race to avoid the trapdoor back into Serie B - with both desperate to take points from a direct rival.
Match preview
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Leaking goals at an alarming rate so far, both Benevento and their weekend visitors Spezia come into this clash on the back of defeats last week - the hosts losing 3-1 to Verona, while Vincenzo Italiano's visitors went down 4-1 to Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Juventus.
Benevento gave a brave account of themselves in the first half in Verona, as the ever-productive Gianluca Lapadula netted an equaliser, but his forward line colleague Gianluca Caprari was sent off for verbally abusing the officials after a penalty kick appeal was not awarded.
The Stregoni's last six games in league and cup have seen them ship 19 goals despite the presence of experienced former Monaco defender Kamil Glik, Bundesliga stalwart Luca Caldirola and veteran ex-Napoli full-back Christian Maggio in Inzaghi's squad.
In fact, the Serie B champions have conceded two or more goals in 16 of their last 20 home games in the top flight, though - in the gains column - they have scored in six consecutive Serie A games for the first time ever. All of which leaves them in 14th place on six points.
Four of 17th-placed Spezia's five points this season have come in away matches (a win in Udine and draw at Tardini against Parma) which provides a thin strand of positivity for Italiano's team. The Bianconeri coach has been unable to settle on a consistent lineup though - only Julian Chabot and Emmanuel Gyasi have played in each of their league fixtures so far.
Last week came their toughest test to date, as Andrea Pirlo's under-development Juventus turned supremacy into a tangible lead once returning hero Cristiano Ronaldo came on to score a brace and inspire a 4-1 victory at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
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Spezia were missing numerous first-teamers for the champions' visit, including the likes of Jacopo Sala, Andrey Galabinov, Jeroen Zoet and Federico Mattiello, but went toe-to-toe with the Turin giants up until the hour mark.
It is, of course, not such games with the Serie A big boys which will define the Aquilotti's season but instead upcoming clashes such as this encounter with Benevento.
There have been no draws in the six most recent second-tier matches between Benevento and Spezia - the Giallorossi have won four games with two wins for the Ligurians - and neither side would be fully satisfied with such an outcome for this first ever Serie A meeting.
Benevento Serie A form: WLWLLL
Benevento form (all competitions): LWLLLL
Spezia Serie A form: LWLDDL
Spezia form (all competitions): WLDDWL
Team News
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Benevento forward Gianluca Caprari was sent off during the defeat to Verona on Monday night and has subsequently been suspended for two games.
Centre-back Alessandro Tuia is out of action for at least a month after undergoing surgery on facial fractures sustained on Monday and fellow defender Federico Barba is also unavailable, so the thus far ineffective Glik-Caldirola pairing will continue at the heart of defence.
Summer signing Iago Falque is set to miss out with a thigh injury, so Sammarinese striker Marco Sau - mostly employed from the bench this season - should feature from the start.
Spezia's Paolo Bartolomei suffered a compound toe fracture in his left foot against Juventus, while former Roma youth product Daniele Verde picked up a leg injury and will not be available.
Coach Vincenzo Italiano can, however, welcome back midfielder Giulio Maggiore, who has returned to full training after quarantine and could be included in the squad for the trip south.
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Letizia, Glik, Caldirola, Foulon; Ionita, Schiattarella, Dabo; Insigne, Sau; Lapadula
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Ferrer, Terzi, Chabot, Marchizza; Agoume, Ricci, Pobega; Gyasi, Nzola, Agudelo
We say: Benevento 2-2 Spezia
In all likelihood, there will be goals in this closely-fought contest, as neither side has proved their defensive credentials at this level yet.
The home side have offered a consistent forward threat by way of compensation but are in the midst of a terrible downturn in form since early October, so spirited Spezia can add another away point to their tally on Saturday evening.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Spezia win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
