Benfica welcome Vitoria de Guimaraes to the Estadio da Luz on Friday evening as the hosts look to end their three-game winless run in the league.
Joao Henriques's men, on the other hand, are in fine form. The visitors have won three consecutive matches and could move to within a point of the Eagles if they secure a victory in the capital.
Match preview
© Reuters
The Portuguese giants have been enduring a torrid time of late. They have won just one of their last five encounters in all competitions, a run that has seen them crash out of the Taca da Liga and fall to fourth position in the Primeira Liga standings.
A 1-0 loss last time out to table-toppers Sporting Lisbon means that Jorge Jesus's side trail their city rivals by nine points after just 16 games.
The Estadio da Luz outfit have been hampered by a coronavirus outbreak within the first-team squad in recent weeks, but even so, Jesus will be disappointed with how his players have performed.
In each of their last three top-flight fixtures, Benfica have failed to find the back of the net on more than one occasion. These troubles in front of goal have been amplified by the striking trio of Luca Waldschmidt, Darwin Nunez and Haris Seferovic embarking on a barren run at the same time.
If Jesus is to survive this poor spell and remain at the helm of the 37-time Portuguese champions, then he surely cannot afford to drop any more points on Friday.
Guimaraes are currently sitting in sixth position in the league table, only four points behind their upcoming opponents with a game in hand.
A 1-0 victory over Maritimo over the weekend means Henriques has seen his team collect 13 points from a possible 18 and move to within the European qualification places.
Their success this season has been built on solid foundations as the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques outfit have the joint-second best defensive record in the division.
Having leaked just 13 goals in 15 league outings to date, the White Angels will be confident that they can maintain this good streak of form and continue their surge up the table.
A win on Friday would be their most impressive yet and fill them with belief that continental football could be an achievable ambition for 2021-22.
Benfica Primeira Liga form: WDWDDL
Benfica form (all competitions): WDLDWL
Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form: WLDWWW
Team News
© Reuters
Influential winger Everton and experienced goalkeeper Helton Leite have both tested positive for coronavirus and are having to self-isolate, ruling them out of this one.
They are joined on the sidelines by long-term absentee Andre Almeida, who continues to recover from a cruciate ligament injury, alongside Waldschmidt, who picked up a foot injury the other week.
Guimaraes have several first-team players unavailable either through injury or illness, leaving Henriques short of options.
Bruno Varela and defensive midfielder Pepelu have contracted COVID-19 and will therefore be unable to play any part in the trip to face Benfica.
Long-term absentee Matheus Mascarenhas is joined on the treatment table by Joseph Amoah, Yann Aurel Bisseck, Mikel Agu, Jacob Maddox and Silvio.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Vertonghen, Jardel, Otamendi; Grimaldo, Weigl, Pizzi, Gilberto; Cervi, Seferovic, Silva
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Trmal; Sacko, Suliman, Mumin, Mensah; Almeida, Wakaso, Andre; Quaresma, Estupinan, Rochinha
We say: Benfica 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
This should be a tight contest between two teams in contrasting form. Another defeat could be fatal for Jesus, but with his Benfica team seriously struggling of late, we fancy Guimaraes to come away with a share of the spoils.
Top betting tip
George Cannon
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.59%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 12.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
