Having won each of the last eight meetings between the teams, Benfica will be seeking to extend their dominance over Pacos de Ferreira when they lock horns at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on Sunday.
The hosts head into the game on a two-match losing streak, while the visitors will be aiming to pick up their third win on the trot for just the second time this season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Benfica fell short against Porto once again as they were comfortably beaten 3-1 when the sides met for the second consecutive game at the Estadio do Dragao last Tuesday.
In a game where Andre Almeida saw red in the 49th minute, Fabio Vieira and Pepe netted to put the hosts two goals up heading into the interval and Roman Yaremchuk pulled one back for the visitors in the 46th minute, but Mehdi Taremi killed any hopes of a comeback as he restore the hosts' two-goal advantage lead in the 69th minute.
This followed a 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Drageos seven days earlier, when Brazilian forward Evanilson scored either side of Vitinha's seventh-minute strike to send Sergio Conceicao's side through to the quarter-finals of the Taca de Portugal.
Benfica have picked up 12 wins, one draw and lost three of their 16 Primeira Liga games to collect 37 points and this sees them sit in third place on the log, behind rivals Porto and Sporting Lisbon, who are tied on 44 points at the top of the table.
© Reuters
Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, picked up successive wins in the Primeira Liga for the first time this season when they fought back from one goal down to see off Santa Clara 2-1 last time out.
After falling behind to Hidemasa Morita's 41st-minute strike, 26-year-old forward Denilson put on a sensational performance in the second half as he scored a brace to turn the game on its head.
This followed a slender 1-0 win over Tondela at the Estadio Joao Cardoso where Denilson scored the only goal of the game from the penalty spot in the 81st minute to end their eight-game winless run across all competitions.
After picking up just five points from 10 league games between September 11 and December 10, Cesar Peixoto's men have now risen to 10th place in the Primeira Liga standings after securing maximum points from their most recent two games.
While Pacos de Ferreira will look to keep the ball rolling and strengthen their position in the top half of the table, next up is the daunting task of going up against an opposing side who have won each of the last eight meetings between the teams and are unbeaten in 13, dating back to a 1-0 loss back in 2015.
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Benfica head into the game with a Coronavirus-hit squad after the likes of goalkeepers Odysseas Vlachodimos and Mile Svilar, Soualiho Meite, Jan Vertonghen, Nemanja Radonjic, Roman Yaremchuk and Pizzi recently tested positive for the virus.
On the injury front, Lucas Verissimo and Rodrigo Pinho are recuperating from knee and muscle injuries respectively and are out of contention for the hosts.
Portuguese defender Andre Almeida will serve his one-match suspension after receiving his marching orders in the 49th minute against Porto last time out.
As for Pacos de Ferreira, manager Peixoto remains unable to call upon the services of Joao Vigario, who sustained a severe knee problem back in August.
With his grace against Santa Clara last time out, Denilson has been on song for the visitors, scoring four goals in his last four outings and we expect the Brazilian forward to spearhead the attack once again.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Leite; Lazaro, Otamendi, Morato; Gilberto, Weigl, Mario, Grimaldo; Silva, Nunez, Ramos
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Lima, Silva; Pires, Ibrahim, Carlos; Silva, Ze Uilton, Denilson
We say: Benfica 3-1 Pacos de Ferreira
Despite being unable to field several key players, Benfica boast a significantly superior and more experienced squad heading into the game and we predict they will extend their fine run of results against the Pacenses.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.65%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 9.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.06%) and 3-0 (10.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Benfica in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
