Benfica head into their fixture with Belenenses on Monday evening knowing that only a win will do if they wish to remain in the Primeira Liga title race.
While the visitors are looking to close the gap on leaders Sporting Lisbon to 13 points, Belenenses are in 10th position after putting together a five-match unbeaten streak.
Match preview
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With Sporting remaining unbeaten after 22 matches, it would come as a surprise if the likes of Braga, Porto and Benfica manage to catch the runaway frontrunners before the end of the campaign.
However, the congestion between second and fourth means that one of the nation's top clubs could miss out on Champions League qualification, something which would represent a major blow given the current financial climate.
While Benfica have gone five matches unbeaten in Portugal's top flight, three of those fixtures ended in draws, the most recent coming at lowly Farense.
Jorge Jesus witnessed his side respond to that disappointment with a much-needed 2-0 triumph against Rio Ave, their goals coming from Haris Seferovic and Pizzi.
The latter only has three league strikes to his name for the campaign, leaving Jesus to hope that the 31-year-old can rediscover his form from last season.
Like the visitors, the majority of Belenenses' recent matches have ended in stalemates, putting the club at risk of being pulled into a relegation scrap.
Despite sitting in mid-table, Armando Teixeira's team are just four points above bottom-placed Boavista with 13 matches remaining.
That scenario will ensure that Os Azuis do Restelo do not get complacent over the coming weeks as they bid to cap a successful return to the top tier.
While Belenenses have scored two goals in successive matches for the first time this season, they still possess the worst attacking record in the division.
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Team News
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Jesus must decide whether to take any risks on Jan Vertonghen, who has been struggling with a thigh injury.
A number of players who dropped out for the cup win over Estoril, such as Rafa and Julian Weigl, are expected to return to the starting XI.
Tiago Esgaio is back in contention for Belenenses and could return to the side in place of Diogo Calila.
Miguel Cardoso may feature in the final third if he passes a late fitness test.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Silva, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Cafu, Yaya, Lima; Cardoso, Varela; Cassiera
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Leite; Goncalves, Verissimo, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Rafa, Pizzi, Weigl, Everton; Seferovic, Waldschmidt
We say: Belenenses 1-2 Benfica
Having recently held Porto to a goalless draw on home territory, Belenenses will be confident of claiming more points off a big club. However, Benfica are motivated to claim a Champions League spot at the end of the season, leaving us to predict a hard-fought win for the visitors.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 69.13%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 11.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.35%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (4.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
