Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic square off in the Championship on Wednesday evening with just three points separating the clubs in the standings.
While Blues are likely to be content with avoiding defeat, victory for 21st-placed Charlton would move them above their hosts on goal difference.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having lost three games in succession by a single goal, Charlton boss Lee Bowyer will naturally be wondering what could have been as his team look to remain in the Championship.
That would especially have been the case at the weekend as refereeing decisions went against them in the 1-0 defeat at home to Reading, a feeling acknowledged by Royals counterpart Mark Bowen.
Nevertheless, with the Addicks just one point above the relegation zone, Bowyer can only hope that the sense of injustice acts as motivation ahead of a pivotal fixture in their season.
With in-form Wigan Athletic and Leeds United still to come, victory against Blues could make all the difference, particularly in the context of heaping the pressure on the first of their next two opponents as they battle with major issues off the pitch.
While Charlton will inevitably be concerned with the teams behind them in the bottom three, the same can be said of Birmingham with regards to teams directly below them between 19th and last spot.
Although they still have hold of 18th position, failing to win any of their last 11 matches leaves the West Midlands outfit at risk of being left just one point above the drop zone with two games remaining.
Birmingham, who are now being led by caretaker duo Steve Spooner and Craig Gardner, gave supporters little reason for optimism as they again under-performed during the 2-0 defeat at Stoke City at the weekend.
That result has allowed the Potters to move ahead of them in the table, as well as leaving them to face the same scenario at St Andrew's later this week.
Despite victory potentially being enough to secure their second-tier status for another 12 months, Spooner and Gardner will undoubtedly be stressing to his players that avoiding a fifth successive defeat must be their priority.
Birmingham City Championship form: DDLLLL
Charlton Athletic Championship form: WWDLLL
Team News
© Reuters
As well as contemplating a change in tactics, Gardner will also be considering whether to remove himself from the Birmingham starting lineup.
Nico Gordon may also drop out to allow Dan Crowley and Jeremie Bela to come back into the team on the flanks.
Like his Birmingham counterparts, Bowyer may also switch strategies, switching to a 3-5-2 formation.
That would likely see Sam Field and Jake Forster-Caskey return to the centre of midfield, with Naby Sarr in line to feature in defence.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Camp; Colin, Roberts, Dean, Harding; Crowley, Bellingham, Sunjic, Bela; Hogan, Jutkiewicz
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Lockyer, Pearce, Sarr; Matthews, Pratley, Field, Forster-Caskey, Doughty; Bonne, Aneke
We say: Birmingham City 1-1 Charlton Athletic
This has all the makings of a tense affair. While Charlton have been struggling in the final third, expect Bowyer's side to do enough going forward to claim a share of the spoils against opponents who are low in confidence.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
