Birmingham City square off against Wycombe Wanderers on Tuesday night sitting just four points above the Championship relegation zone.
While the home side are 11 points adrift of safety, they have two matches in hand on many of their rivals, including the next visitors to Adams Park.
Match preview
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Aitor Karanka will feel that collecting four points from their last three fixtures represents improvement for his Birmingham side after their poor start to 2021.
However, Saturday's draw with Coventry City has left Blues closer to the bottom three, keeping the pressure on the Spaniard, who knows that he is still fighting for his job at St Andrew's.
There is movement in the transfer market as Karanka looks to add something different to a goal-shy attack, a positive sign for supporters who have been left frustrated with just 19 strikes coming in 26 matches.
Birmingham ended a run of five straight home defeats at the weekend, but they still possess the best defensive away record in the division.
Just eight goals have been conceded in 12 matches, a return which will be put to the test by a Wycombe side who are beginning to have more joy in the final third.
The Chairboys have netted 12 times in their last seven games in all competitions, a vast improvement on their efforts during the early months of the season.
However, Gareth Ainsworth witnessed his backline ship 11 strikes during their recent double-header with Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford, 10 of which have come since the 86th minute of their defeat to Spurs.
Ainsworth must now find more balance in the team, aware that he cannot afford to adopt a defensive approach when victories are required to keep the club within touching distance of the sides above them.
This is the first of six successive matches against clubs in the bottom half of the table, a period which will likely determine whether Wycombe are capable of pulling off the great escape.
Wycombe Wanderers Championship form: LDLWLL
Wycombe Wanderers form (all competitions): LWLWLL
Birmingham City Championship form: DLLWLD
Birmingham City form (all competitions): LLLWLD
Team News
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Ainsworth will almost certainly make several changes to his Wycombe XI, including handing a recall to defender Anthony Stewart.
Gareth McCleary could also come back into the side, although Scott Kashket and Adebayo Akinfenwa may have to be content with a place among the replacements.
West Bromwich Albion loanee Rekeem Harper may be handed his first Birmingham start, potentially as a replacement for Jon Toral.
Marc Roberts and Gary Gardner are also options for Karanka after they were introduced as half-time substitutes against Coventry.
New arrival Sam Cosgrove is expected to be named on the bench, leaving Scott Hogan in line to remain in attack.
Wycombe Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Grimmer, Knight, Stewart, McCarthy; Wheeler, Thompson, Adeniran; Onyedinma, Ikpeazu, McCleary
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, San Jose, Dean, Pedersen; Clayton, Sunjic; Sanchez, Harper, Bela; Hogan
We say: Wycombe Wanderers 1-1 Birmingham City
Ainsworth will have identified this match as a must-win, meaning that Wycombe will likely go on the offensive in this contest. Nevertheless, Blues have performed better away from home this season, leading us to predict a share of the spoils after a competitive encounter.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 42.73%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 28.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.6%) and 1-2 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.2%), while for a Wycombe Wanderers win it was 1-0 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
