Blackburn Rovers make the trip to Coventry City on Saturday afternoon knowing that they desperately require three points to remain in the Championship playoffs.
The home side, down in 11th position, are six points adrift of the visitors with a game in hand, providing the Sky Blues with an opportunity to catapult themselves back into the race for promotion.
Match preview
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Having recently been competing for an automatic spot, Blackburn would have hoped to make sure of a top-six position over the closing games of the season.
However, a run of nine points from 11 matches have left Tony Mowbray's team as outsiders for a return to the Premier League, Rovers having played at least one more match than many of their rivals.
After fighting back to defeat Derby County, Mowbray would have hoped for a second win in quick succession ahead of the trip to fellow strugglers Reading before the international break.
Instead, the Royals scored the only goal of the game 12 minutes from time, leaving Blackburn in a position where defeat on Saturday would leave them at risk of dropping down to ninth spot.
Mowbray's make the trip to the Coventry Building Society Arena having failed to win on their travels since January 15, a run spanning seven fixtures.
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Their hosts have also struggled in recent weeks, the Sky Blues heading into this fixture having prevailed in just one of their last six games.
That said, looking at the bigger picture, Coventry have only recorded back-to-back wins on one occasion since the middle of September, a startling statistic given that they have remained in and around the playoff picture for so long.
Mark Robins's team head into this game on the back of a 1-1 draw at Derby County, making it four points from three games, but the winless streak over the previous period has ultimately cost them.
While Coventry are certainly not out of the playoff race, they are very close to must-win territory, and success over a direct rival could act as the catalyst that they require to keep the pressure on the teams above them.
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Team News
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With Kyle McFadzean and Jake Clarke-Salter only just back in training after calf and groin issues, Michael Rose could get the nod in the Coventry defence after recovering from coronavirus.
Robins may consider further alterations with Viktor Gyokeres and Martyn Waghorn both available to partner Matt Godden in attack, providing that Robins is prepared to lose a creative midfielder.
Despite having represented Chile in midweek, Ben Brereton Diaz will only be considered for a place on the Blackburn substitutes' bench after recently recovering from an ankle injury.
However, Darragh Lenihan and Reda Khadra appear likely to miss out completely after sustaining groin and hamstring injuries respectively.
Jan Paul van Hecke is expected to feature despite being forced to withdraw from the Netherlands Under-21 squad as a precaution, but a lack of direct replacement for Lenihan may encourage Mowbray to revert to a back four.
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Moore; Sheaf, Hyam, Rose; Dabo, Allen, Hamer, Bidwell; O'Hare, Shipley; Godden
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Rankin-Costello, Van Hecke, Wharton, Pickering; Travis, Rothwell, Buckley; Gallagher, Dolan, Giles
We say: Coventry City 2-1 Blackburn Rovers
This feels like a contest between two teams who can only be classed as outsiders for promotion, and how the game pans out will be down to mentality. The home side have more reason to throw caution to the wind, something which we feel will lead to the Sky Blues claiming a potentially-pivotal win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Blackburn Rovers had a probability of 26.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Blackburn Rovers win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
