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Blackburn logo
Championship | Gameweek 46
May 8, 2021 at 12.30pm UK
Ewood Park
Birmingham logo

Blackburn
5 - 2
Birmingham

Armstrong (27' pen., 71', 85'), Brereton (45+1'), Elliott (83')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Pedersen (22'), Jutkiewicz (50')
Leko (26'), Stirk (40'), Pedersen (67')

Preview: Blackburn Rovers vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Blackburn Rovers and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Birmingham City will be hoping to bounce back from last weekend's heavy defeat and end the season on a high when they travel to Blackburn Rovers on Saturday.

This will be the fifth time that the Blues have faced the Rovers on the final day of a league season, and they have yet to lose against them, winning and drawing two games each.


Match preview

Blackburn Rovers manager Tony Mowbray pictured in January 2021© Reuters

After winning 5-2 at home to Huddersfield Town at the end of April, Blackburn were unable to begin the month of May with another victory as they played out a 1-1 draw away at relegation-threatened Rotherham United last weekend.

Adam Armstrong capitalised on a defensive mistake from Angus MacDonald to slot home his 25th goal of the season 19 minutes in, but the hosts came out fighting in the second half and managed to score an equaliser four minutes from time through Lewis Wing, to see both teams share the spoils.

That result sees Tony Mowbray's side occupy 15th place in the Championship, eight points behind Millwall in 11th, the position that the Rovers finished in last season.

Blackburn claimed all three points against Birmingham in their most recent meeting earlier this campaign, with Armstrong and Bradley Dack scoring the goals to earn a 2-0 victory at St Andrews.

The Rovers, who have not lost at home in their final league match of a season since May 2000, are looking to complete a league double over the Blues for the first time since the 2000-01 campaign under former boss Graeme Souness.

Birmingham City's Scott Hogan celebrates scoring their first goal against Swansea City in the Championship on April 2, 2021© Reuters

Birmingham were also unable to begin the month of May with three points as they were thrashed 4-0 at home to Cardiff City last weekend.

A brilliant hat-trick from Harry Wilson, as well as a strike from Mark Harris, helped the Bluebirds claim an emphatic victory against a much-changed Birmingham outfit, who lost their 19th Championship game of the season.

Lee Bowyer's men are now 18th in the table, two places and two points better off than last season, and there are now no fears of relegation to the third tier.

Birmingham travel to Ewood Park having won just two of their last 34 away league visits against Blackburn, winning 2-1 back in 1968 and 3-2 in 2013.

The Blues have not finished higher than 17th in the last four Championship seasons, but a victory on Saturday could see them climb as high as 15th in the table.

Blackburn Rovers Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L


Team News

Harvey Elliott in action for Blackburn Rovers on November 3, 2020© Reuters

With nothing to play for, Blackburn boss Mowbray may decide to make changes to the starting lineup that drew with Rotherham last weekend.

The likes of Harvey Elliott, Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Barry Douglas are all set to play their final game for the club before they return to their parent clubs at the end of the season.

As many as nine other first team players, including Stewart Downing, Ryan Nyambe, Joe Rothwell and Bradley Johnson, will see their contracts expire next month and so could also be playing their final match for the club this weekend.

Armstrong, who has 25 Championship goals this season, is set to start up front and he is just two goals away from matching the tally of former Rovers striker Jordan Rhodes, who scored 27 times in 2012-13.

He could be joined in attack by Ben Brereton or Sam Gallagher, who have scored 14 goals between them this campaign.

As for Birmingham, striker Scott Hogan has missed the last two matches with a hip injury and is unlikely to feature this weekend.

Goalkeeper Neil Etheridge is also set to miss out with a hip injury, which will likely see Zach Jeacock start as a result.

Jonathan Leko and Sam Cosgrove started up front in Hogan's absence and they may keep their places in attack, although Lukas Jutkiewicz will be hoping he can earn his place back in the first XI.

Youngsters Amari Miller and Ryan Stirk were handed their first senior starts in the defeat to Cardiff and the pair could play a part once again this weekend, as could Nico Gordon who came off the bench against the Bluebirds.

Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Lenihan, Harwood-Bellis, Douglas; Johnson, Rothwell, Holtby; Elliott, Armstrong, Gallagher

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Jeacock; Dacres-Cogley, Dean, Friend, Seddon; Stirk, Sunjic, Harper, Miller; Leko, Jutkiewicz


SM words green background

We say: Blackburn Rovers 2-1 Birmingham City

Both Blackburn and Birmingham can enjoy the final day of the season, with no pressure riding on the result.

The hosts are more likely to field a stronger side than their opponents and that could help them claim all three points at Ewood Park this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 45.89%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 26.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Blackburn vs Birmingham

Blackburn Rovers
87.5%
Draw
0.0%
Birmingham City
12.5%
8
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